Power struggles raise `cold war' spectre

As the spy plane crisis raises the spectre of a "cold war" between China and the US, an internal battle for supremacy is being…

As the spy plane crisis raises the spectre of a "cold war" between China and the US, an internal battle for supremacy is being fought out in the corridors of power in Beijing.

The decision-making structure in China is consensus-driven. But that consensus has been hard to reach this week as the Chinese military and political leaderships find themselves divided on how to proceed.

The more open and internationally-minded Foreign Ministry is keen to close the chapter on this row.

It does not see the collision between an American surveillance aircraft and a Chinese fighter jet as the issue on which to go to the wire with the US.

READ MORE

It recognises there are tougher battles ahead, namely the imminent decision by the US on whether it will sell sophisticated arms to Taiwan.

But the conservative elements in the military leadership are pushing to take a more hardline stance, and some reportedly hold the view that as the aircraft landed without permission on Chinese territory, the US should have to plead for its return.

Added to all this is behind-the-scenes manoeuvring ahead of Chinese leadership changes next year, with future key players keen to cosy up to the politically influential military figures.

According to US sources in Beijing, the Chinese military appears to have the upper hand at the moment.

The Chinese navy is running the show with the EP-3 aircraft sitting in a military air base on Hainan Island.

It is presenting its views to the Communist Party leadership for a decision.

The Foreign Ministry seems to have no role other than passing messages and briefing the media.

According to an expert on international affairs, Dr Brendan Smith, the Chinese Foreign Ministry is in a much weaker position since the American bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999 which saw thousands protest on the streets.

He said it should be pointed out that, like China, the US also has tensions between its political and military leaders.

"Both Jiang Zemin and George Bush have got to deal with the military and with factions within their own parties. It is not a problem unique to China," he said.

Whether this crisis will result in the first-ever Asia "cold war" between the US and China remains to be seen.

The weekend mid-air collision, confirmation yesterday of the formal arrest of a Chinese-born American academic on spying charges, and the recent defection to the US of a senior Chinese military officer all add up to the two countries slipping towards long-term confrontation.

An expert on security issues at Fudan University in Shanghai, Mr Shen Dingli, told The Irish Times that whether or not the spy plane incident leads to a cold war depends on how the crisis unfolds and is ultimately resolved.

"One cannot exclude the possibility of a new cold war. But it is in nobody's interests and is unlikely," he said.

He added: "This was purely an accident, and an accident should have no value. An apology from America would help at this stage."

However, there was no hint of an apology from the US yesterday, with both sides still entrenched.

What happens in the coming days could dictate the shape of the Sino-US relationship for some time to come.