FOUR party conferences are scheduled for the next four weekends but mounting election speculation has led to fears that they may not all go ahead. The Green Party conference in Dublin today and the Labour Party gathering in Limerick next weekend, are secure enough - no election writ is expected, at least until mid-April. But Fianna Fail has an ardfheis - at which 4,000 delegates are expected - booked for the RDS on April 18th and 19th, and Democratic Left will hold their gathering in Dun Laoghaire on the 25th and 26th.
The problem is that once Taoiseach John Bruton goes to the Park to dissolve the Dail, RTE cancels coverage of party conferences. To bring a huge gathering to Dublin at the start of a vital campaign and not get the benefit of live television would be a waste. FF sources say the whole shebang would have to be cancelled. Would the Coalition do it to them? Yes.
DL is more relaxed but its gathering is much smaller. If an election was to be held within a week of their ardfheis, they would cancel it; otherwise it would go ahead as a campaign platform.
Few indeed are the deputies who enjoyed the Easter recess. Despite continued utterances from the Taoiseach, John Bruton, and his close associates that a November election is still a runner - no one on any side of the Dail believes it. Late May is the date on everyone's lips and, say the backbenchers, nothing can stop the momentum now.
Both FF and the PDs are up and running, with posters on display, election offices operating, campaign speeches forthcoming and strategy planned. The Labour Party will start a series of briefings for canvassers in two weeks time.
Despite the view that November is the Taoiseach's personal choice, it is felt he won't be able to hold the line and FG backbenchers are already organising their election literature and canvassers.