Precipitated by a miscalculation, the battle of competing coalitions may yet end in a hung Dail

TODAY John Bruton will ask the President, Mrs Robinson, to dissolve the 27th Dail and battle will be joined over what combination…

TODAY John Bruton will ask the President, Mrs Robinson, to dissolve the 27th Dail and battle will be joined over what combination of political parties will control Ireland's economic destiny at the start of the 21st century.

The economic circumstances have never been so favourable. Not only has the State come through three years of spectacular growth, averaging 7 per cent per year, but the ESRI's prediction for the next 10 years amounts to 5 per cent per year.

The future promises a time of joy for government politicians: a time to build up, rather than to tear down. A time of frustration awaits the opposition.

The building plans of the various parties, involving agreed templates for two governments, will be unveiled for the electorate over the next 10 days. After that, a clear indication of the eventual election result may emerge. But nobody is taking it for granted. The electorate is unpredictable: there could still be a hung Dail.

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Coalition breakdown or electoral advantage are the elements which normally precipitate an early general election. But here we have Fine Gael, the Labour Party and Democratic Left, trailing badly in the opinion polls, and still taking on Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats with six months left on the Government's clock. It's not, as one observer said at Leinster House, natural.

So what is going on? Do the Coalition parties have a death wish, or will last minute rabbits be pulled from political hats?

The answer would appear to involve early political miscalculation, plus a great big dollop of hope. Last March, when an Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll showed the gap between the Government and Opposition parties to have closed from 12 to six percentage points, an early summer election became almost inevitable.

Fine Gael was on a roll, support for Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats was declining, and the Dunnes payments tribunal was still hanging fire. It looked as if the Rainbow Coalition was in with a strong chance of being returned to power.

Dick Spring went to Limerick and ruled out any postelection coalition with Fianna Fail. Government confidence soared.

Fianna Fail looked grim, and Bertie Ahern had to engage in serious damage limitation as Charlie Haughey's alleged financial dependence on Ben Dunne became apparent.

Then John Bruton and Fine Gael Ministers went to Dublin Castle to explain, as best they could, their fundraising efforts to the Dunnes payments tribunal. The election clock began to tick.

Ten days later, as the Government parties began their postering campaign, the results of the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll hit like a thunderbolt. Fine Gael had lost ground and the gap between the government options had widened again to 12 points.

But there was no going back. Within hours of the poll, John Bruton and Dick Spring indicated that the die was cast. There would be an election in early summer.

There was a hint of "turkeys voting for Christmas" in the demeanour of some ministers, who recognised that the odds were stacked against them being returned to power.

But they were determined to fight. The alternative - a November election, with a campaign running through the summer - was too horrible to contemplate. And, they argued, if traction could be gained with the electorate in the first week of the campaign, they could still beat Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats.

There is a certain amount of straw clutching involved here. On current voting intentions, Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats are hot favourites to form the next government.

But first preference votes, which opinion polls measure fill only 20 per cent of Dail seats. Second and later preferences, which are impossible to predict, will decide the final composition of the 29th Dail. Hundreds of votes in a few constituencies may dictate the form of the next coalition government.

Members of all Dail parties are keenly aware that the findings of national opinion polls are frequently at odds with constituency polls, conducted on a mock ballot paper basis. Caution reigns on predictions, except where party spin doctors are involved.

That said, there is growing confidence amongst Fianna Fail politicians that they will be in government after the election. Their last parliamentary party meeting of the 27th Dail - held yesterday - was said to be "upbeat and enthusiastic", and Bertie Ahern appealed for the use of vote transfer and vote sharing tactics which would maximise the number of party seats.

But with nine Fianna Fail TDs retiring, compared to three each for Fine Gael and the Labour Party and one from the Progressive Democrats, established voting patterns will be disrupted in many constituencies. In those circumstances it will be more difficult for the parties to manage their vote and to arrange transfers.

Already, Fine Gael is suggesting that with 78 TDs seeking reelection, the Government parties have an automatic advantage over Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats, where only 66 out going members are contesting.

But raw voting statistics take no prisoners, and when the election bloodletting is over, ministers as well as outgoing TDs may end up in the midden of history.

Within an hour off the dissolution of the Dail today, Mr Bruton, Mr Spring and Mr De Rossa will share a common platform in Dublin to launch a campaign entitled "21 goals for the 21st century". After that, apart from a few setpieces, their three parties will go their separate ways.

Fianna Fail will launch its election manifesto tomorrow, concentrating on taxation, job creation and crime.

And, down in Galway, Mary Harney will blast off for the Progressive Democrats, outlining their campaign and their post election ambitions. But the party's formal manifesto will not be unveiled until next Wednesday.

The Green Party will also unveil its campaign tomorrow and is promising "some surprises".

All parties are determined to have multiple bites of the election cherry, in terms of publicity, during the coming campaign. A whole series of policy launches and manifesto unveilings has been arranged. Close marking and hardhitting between competing parties can be practically guaranteed at this stage.

The prize of a rapidly growing economy, with money to spend and a society to mould, is enough of an incentive to make any party come out fighting. We may not see the likes of this gravy train again.