SYRIA:PRESIDENT BASHAR al-Assad yesterday surprised many Syrians by adopting a tough line on the protests which have shaken his country over the past 10 days. In an address to parliament, he blamed unrest on conspirators, outsiders and satellite channels.
But in his first speech since demonstrations erupted in the southeastern town of Deraa on March 18th, he did not offer specific reforms that had been suggested by official spokespeople, including a suspension or lifting of the emergency law in place since 1963, freeing of politician prisoners, and a drive against corruption.
Instead he spoke of “conspirators” acting in accordance with an “Israeli agenda”. He observed: “There is chaos in the country under the pretext of reform”, and “We don’t seek battles”. He warned: “If a battle is imposed on us today, we welcome it.” He admitted the regime had “been late in implementing” reform but pledged “we will start now. Priorities are stability and improving economic conditions.”
During his 11 years in office, Dr Assad has focused primarily on transforming the centrally managed socialist economy into a largely free-market economy.
When he attempted key political reforms soon after he assumed the presidency after the death of his father, Hafez al-Assad, he was forced to back off and to crack down on those trying to engage in dialogue outside the confines set by the ruling Baath party.
He said that a “sectarian divide” was partly responsible for the unprecedented violence that has shocked Syrians. This seems to be an admission that the protests, mounted largely by Sunnis, could have an anti-Alawite dimension. Dr Assad belongs to the heterodox Shia Alawite community and many senior figures in the regime and armed forces are Alawites.
Dr Assad also acknowledged that “mistakes” had been made in Deraa, where security forces have been charged with shooting dozens of demonstrators. Human rights organisations estimate that the death toll to be at least 61.
The immediate response to the address was negative on social networking sites and in the streets of the port city of Latakia where security forces reportedly fired over the heads of about 100 protesters.
The popular reaction is likely to come tomorrow after noon prayers, the traditional time for protests in the Arab and Muslim worlds. One analyst observed that a harsh crackdown could indicate that Dr Assad was prepared to play by “Hama rules”, a reference to the 1982 military assault ordered by his father on the central Syrian city of Hama, then a bastion of Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood which was trying to topple the secular Baathist regime. Between 15,000 and 30,000 people were estimated to have been killed and large areas of Hama were levelled.
If Dr Assad plays by “Hama rules” rather than initiating reforms, it would be clear that hardliners in the regime have triumphed over the president and his reformist camp.