Process kept going by refusal to accept failure

The first time you manage to stay vertical on a bicycle can be an intoxicating, if alarming, experience

The first time you manage to stay vertical on a bicycle can be an intoxicating, if alarming, experience. You just keep pedalling and you're not sure where you're going - you just hope to avoid crashing into something.

That's how it must feel for the members of the power-sharing Executive, which held its first meeting on Thursday in the aftermath of devolution. Mr Seamus Mallon was disarmingly honest when he spoke of his fears entering his new post - or rather the old post that he had never really left.

Many will give thanks for the week's respite between now and the North-South Ministerial Council inaugural meeting in Armagh on December 13th. Not that the novice ministers will get much rest as the civil servants take them through their paces. The events of the week were a success in terms of political progress and media images but there is still an element of smoke and mirrors and whistling past the graveyard. Like the boy on the bicycle, the politicians and the two governments are pedalling hard and hoping not to hit a rock in the road.

The biggest rock in the road is the reconvening of the Ulster Unionist Council sometime in February and, potentially more important, the letter lodged by Mr David Trimble with the UUC president, Mr Josias Cunningham, which is believed to be a promise to resign by a certain date if IRA decommissioning fails to take place.

READ MORE

By all accounts, Mr Trimble's demarche took both Dublin and Sinn Fein by surprise. It was a departure from the deal agreed in the Mitchell review, but clearly the UUP leader felt it necessary to win maximum support among UUC delegates. It has created serious problems for the Sinn Fein leadership at this very delicate and sensitive time when it is seen as essential to lead the republican movement into the new political era without a split.

While a strong case can be made that nationalism has gained more than unionism out of the Belfast Agreement - the near-unanimous level of support among nationalist voters tends to confirm that view - there are still a lot of very jumpy people on the republican side, awed by the magnitude of what they are doing and susceptible to claims that the new order is merely a copperfastened version of partition.

This process has been kept going by the refusal of key individuals and groups to accept the inevitability of failure. There is no inevitability that the reconvened UUC will decide to bring down the curtain on the new day in Northern Ireland politics. Nor is there any certainty that Mr Trimble's letter, which is a private matter between himself and Mr Cunningham at this stage, will have any more effect than the letter he previously wrote to the Assembly member, Mr Roy Beggs jnr, which is said to be similar in content. It may indeed be the case that Mr Cunningham, a tall, urbane stockbroker with a rich family tradition in unionism, holds the future of Northern Ireland in his hands - but don't count on it.

The IRA could take the heat out of the situation by unilaterally destroying a quantity of arms and explosives before the end of January. There are no reliable indications so far that this is likely to happen, although the idea of a day of remembrance and reconciliation, mooted by Dublin at the Hillsborough talks last Easter, has begun to show its head once more.

While the No camp in the Ulster Unionist Party did better than many people expected, securing 42 per cent of UUC delegates last Saturday, some of its members are feeling a little demoralised at present, having been defeated, however narrowly, and witnessing the media blitz about the new Executive ever since. Yet they will probably gather their strength for one last heave at what might yet be a stormy meeting in February, conscious of the fact that, having had a taste of office, their party colleagues may be very reluctant to give it up.

While there is much talk of "Northern Ireland's future" and laying the groundwork for the next generation, the fact remains that the younger element in the UUP is in large number opposed to the Belfast Agreement and all that has flowed from it. One No lobbyist said he felt like the eldest son on a very good farm watching the parents squander his inheritance.

ONE SENSES that unionists hanker for the days of Carson and Craig and for leaders with passion and gravitas. The impassioned tone of Trimble's final oration on Saturday may have swung more support his way than the pledges that he offered. "Trimble doesn't do passion," one of his opponents said, half-admiringly. It seems the more Trimble shows that he means business about implementing this agreement, the more likely he is to rally the party behind him.

The appointment of Mr Sam Foster from Fermanagh as Minister of the Environment also sent a signal to others in the party that promotion is not always a matter for city slickers who do well in TV debates. But if it comes to another vote in February, the First Minister will have to put himself about more in the constituencies, sip more cups of tea in Orange halls and attend more cake sales and rugby dinners. Charles Haughey might have a few tips about working the "chicken and chips circuit".

Many of the delegates on Saturday had never been to Belfast's Waterfront Hall before - they are not part of the media generation and respond better to one-to-one contact and reassurances. Sir Reg Empey played a useful background role in this regard over recent weeks - one No lobbyist grudgingly admitted he was "a class act".

Another "class act" by all accounts is the new Northern Secretary, Mr Peter Mandelson, currently expressing great contentment over his new status as glorified governor-general, although his talents can hardly be applied in such a modest role for long. He played a key management role behind the scenes this week but must have been bemused at times by the UUP approach to politics.

On Monday, he flies to Washington where he will visit the White House and may even meet the Great Man himself. He's behaving like a foreign secretary already.