THE FATE of the proposed public sector agreement is likely to be decided by members of Impact and Siptu, which between them account for almost half the 300,000 public sector workers in the State.
The votes within other big public sector unions, especially the Irish Nurses and Midwives Organisation and the Irish National Teachers’ Association, may also prove crucial.
However, much remains unclear about the mechanism by which public sector workers will reach a decision on the Croke Park deal, including the method of voting to be followed and the extent to which individual unions will be bound by a collective result.
The final decision on the deal will be taken by the public services committee of Ictu, which comprises 18 unions with members in the civil service and the health, education and local government sectors.
It will meet within the next fortnight to discuss the fallout from the agreement reached at the end of March, and to determine how the vote on the deal will ultimately be carried out.
It is likely that the committee will follow procedures last used in pre-national partnership days in the early 1980s, with each union enjoying a weighted voting strength commensurate to its public sector membership.
Individual unions are not legally obliged to ballot their members but all are expected to do so. Some union leaders have already come out against the deal, while others have recommended acceptance.
The entirety of a union’s vote on the committee would then be cast in favour of the decision arrived at by members, even if the vote was close. It is therefore possible that the aggregate vote of union members could go one way and the vote on the committee another.
Siptu says about one-third of its 200,000 members are employed by the State, while most of Impact’s 65,000 members are in the public sector. The INMO’s 40,000 members are mostly in the public health system, while most of the INTO’s 20,000-plus members work for public schools in the Republic. Balloting in these big unions is likely to take over a month.
The decision-making process in smaller unions, such as those representing public service vets, medical scientists and craftworkers, will probably be quicker, but their votes are unlikely to sway the overall outcome.
A Yes vote may not spell the end of industrial unrest. Already, the Teachers’ Union of Ireland (TUI), with 15,000 members, has recommended rejection of the deal and says it will take action independently of Ictu regardless of what other unions decide. Ictu, while desirous of an agreed outcome, is unlikely to take a course of action that would stop a union acting on the decision taken by its members.
