THE LATEST opinion poll from the reliable Levada Centre shows prime minister Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party may have its huge majority drastically reduced in next Sunday’s parliamentary elections.
At present, United Russia holds 315 of the 450 seats in the State Duma, but the poll released yesterday predicts this will fall to 252 or 253 – thus depriving the government of the two-thirds majority it needs to change some articles of the constitution.
The parties most likely to benefit from United Russia’s fall in support are, according to the Levada Centre, the main opposition Communist Party and the Liberal Democratic Party, which is neither Liberal nor Democratic and is led by the right-wing demagogue Vladimir Zhirinovsky.
Both of these main opposition parties are strongly tainted by the “Managed Democracy” system operated by Putin and his supporters. Having the Communists, led by the charismatically challenged Gennady Zyuganov, as the main visible alternative suits United Russia well, while Zhirinovsky also serves their purpose by sweeping up the discontented right-wing vote in elections but rarely if ever opposing the government when a vote is taken in the Duma.
The poll shows the Communists filling their usual second place with 94 seats, with the Liberal Democrats at 59 and the more democratic A Just Russia with 44.
It seems possible United Russia could count on Zhirinovsky’s support to gain a two-thirds majority for constitutional amendments when the new Duma resumes after the elections.
Putin was officially and unanimously endorsed yesterday by his United Russia party as its candidate for the Russian presidential elections next March. His nomination comes at a time when the latest figures show Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) rising 5.6 per cent over last year’s figure and inflation falling from double digits to 5.6 per cent. In other countries such figures could push government parties to greater success, but in Russia things are changing.
Putin was seen as successful in bringing stability to his country after the chaotic years of Boris Yeltsin’s rule, but this stability is now being perceived as stagnation by sections of the electorate who are anxious for change.
Concern over falling support could be detected in the nomination speech by President Dmitry Medvedev and in Putin’s acceptance speech.
Both launched an attack on the endemic corruption that has afflicted Russia. The fact that this corruption flourished during their own watch was not, of course, mentioned, but there was a definite element in the speeches of stealing the clothes of opponents, who are pushing corruption as the main issue.
It has been a bad week for United Russia and Putin, in fact. Used to a certain amount of adulation, he was surprisingly booed and whistled at by the crowd at a martial arts contest, causing his spin doctors to have the offending noises removed from TV coverage and later to admit there had been boos and whistles but to claim this happened because the toilets had been locked during Putin’s presence for security reasons.
Being snubbed by fight fans was bad enough, but to be subjected to a rebuff in parliament itself was even worse. Whether they support the government or not, deputies traditionally rise to their feet when the prime minister enters the chamber, but last Wednesday members of the Communist Party and A Just Russia pointedly remained in their seats on Putin’s entrance – a departure from protocol that Putin equally pointedly referred to in his subsequent speech.
United Russia has benefited in the past from its control of state television, some radio stations and a large chunk of the print media, leaving radio stations such as Ekho Moskvy and newspapers such as Novaya Gazeta in a small minority of opposing voices.
The rise of the internet has changed this. Bloggers such as Alexei Navalny have excoriated Putin and his supporters on the internet, and Navalny’s description of United Russia as the “Party of Crooks and Thieves” has taken off as a political slogan.
Other anonymous sources have posted anti-Putin items on the web, including a very professional video that intersperses cuts of Putin and Medvedev with clips from the movie Titanic.
As Medvedev announces Putin should be president, the Titanicstrikes the iceberg.
Putin's announcement that Medvedev should lead United Russia is accompanied by a clip of a Titanicsailor putting a gun to his head.
The video ends with a call to the electorate to “buy a ticket for a different ship” on December 4th. So far it has been viewed by almost 1 million people.