THE LABOUR Party leadership battle, which has run for five months and which will be decided this afternoon on the first day of the party’s Manchester conference, has come down to the wire.
Speculation is increasing that Ed Miliband, who began the race as a distant second favourite, could snatch victory from his older brother, David.
Voting closed on Wednesday in the complicated electoral college race, where MPs and MEPs have one-third of the vote, with rank-and-file party members and up to three million trades unionists who pay a political fee to Labour sharing the rest. While the result is still unclear, it is evident that the older Miliband has lost much, if not all, of the early lead he enjoyed in the race.
The race has been notoriously difficult to poll, but British bookmakers Betfair declared the younger Miliband as favourite for the first time yesterday morning, at 11-10 against 10-11 for his sibling, the shadow foreign secretary.
Both served in the cabinet in the New Labour days, with David an ally of Tony Blair and Ed an adviser of his successor, Gordon Brown.
Most MPs say it is still too close to call but there is no doubt that David Miliband has lost the runaway lead he enjoyed four months ago. He has run a more cautious campaign, believing that he could not alienate voters outside the Labour Party, while his brother has chosen to be critical of the New Labour days and to be more union-friendly.
Friends of David Miliband have suggested he could take a break from frontline politics if he loses, in order to avoid being painted as a rival to his brother – although he has said he is willing to serve in the shadow cabinet – elections for which open now – if he loses.
Ed Balls, one of the other three candidates, has made a strong pitch to become shadow chancellor of the exchequer.
David Miliband has stayed closer to the New Labour agenda during the campaign, refusing to commit, for instance, to attend a rally against the Conservative/Liberal Democrats proposed cuts. He has also argued that the deficit should be cut as fast as has been agreed by New Labour under proposals brought to cabinet by chancellor of the exchequer Alistair Darling.
However, he did sound a left-wing agenda on occasions, proposing new taxes on banks and larger homes and calling for the ratio between cuts and tax rises to stand at two to one, rather than the four to one planned by the coalition. There are those even in the treasury however who believe the coalition will be unable to maintain that ratio as difficulties increase.
Ed Miliband, meanwhile, has enjoyed the endorsement of the big unions and pushed for greater equality in British society.
He wants permanently increased tax rates for the rich, rather than short-term penalties such as Labour’s bankers’ bonus tax. He has voiced opposition to the Iraq war – even though he was an adviser to Mr Brown during this period and did not voice any opposition then.
Labour meanwhile, as expected, has chosen former London mayor Ken Livingstone over former Labour MP Oona King to run in 2012 in the mayoralty race against sitting Conservative Boris Johnson.
“Today’s decision signals the start of a campaign to protect London from cuts,” Mr Livingstone told supporters. “[This is a] chance to send a message that we don’t want devastating cuts. We will stand up for London. We need to change the mayor. If you want to get them out, you start by getting out Boris Johnson.”
