Analysis: As political leaders prepared for a long period of horse-trading, commentators assessed the "grand coalition" or "Jamaica coalition" options, writes Derek Scally
The battle for the Bundestag began in earnest yesterday, turning Berlin into a divided city once more. After the election shock of Sunday night, German politicians leapt into the ring yesterday and rushed for two separate coalition corners.
The Social Democrats (SPD) began banging the "grand coalition" drum yesterday, warning the Christian Democrats (CDU) that Chancellor Schröder would call the tune and the shots. But the CDU gave the SPD the cold shoulder and began a public courting of the two smaller parties for a more exotic electoral variation.
Senior CDU politicians officially opened the door yesterday to the so-called "Jamaica coalition", named after that country's flag and the party political colours of the CDU (black), the yellow of liberal Free Democrats (FDP) and Green Party.
Such a coalition was barely considered before the election, but the surprise outcome has put a new light on matters. Even the FDP leader Guido Westerwelle came out in favour of talking to the Greens.
"If anyone wants to seize the initiative and help CDU-FDP to power, then go ahead," he said.
Green Party leaders gave a mixed reaction to a three-way Jamaica coalition.
"I'm an old reggae fan," remarked Claudia Roth, co-leader of the Green Party. But Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer warned that "the Greens would be making a big mistake if we fell victim to popularity".
German political scientists worked overtime yesterday, offering dozens of plausible arguments for why the "grand coalition" or the "Jamaica coalition" could emerge from talks.
"The Jamaica option is Angela Merkel's only chance of a coup: she could take power in this constellation and push economic competence on a reform path," said Dr Ralf Altenhof, political scientist at the University of Chemnitz. He suggested the Greens and CDU-FDP could find common ground if pushed, but serious obstacles remain, such as competing philosophies on social reforms and taxes, not to mention Turkey's EU membership hopes. Above all, the CDU is determined to reverse the Green Party's wind-down plan for all nuclear power plants. Abandoning prestige projects like that could cause a revolt among the Green Party's ecological grassroots.
While Berlin buzzed with talk of Jamaica yesterday, others dismissed it as nothing more than a smokescreen.
"An apparent initiation of a Jamaica coalition can be used by the CDU as leverage against the SPD to force them into a grand coalition," said Prof Peter Lösche, political scientist at the University of Göttingen.
That view was shared by some FDP watchers, who see the CDU talks as the best way of preparing the party for the opposition benches, where the party could build on its impressive 10 per cent election result.
"If the FDP went in with the Greens they could forget about campaigning for the next 20 years. Its election chances would be ruined," said Rainer Erkins of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation, a liberal political organisation with links to the FDP . "The FDP is quite happy to do the CDU a favour and get Schröder out of the picture for a grand coalition.
"But make no mistake, Dr Merkel won't be chancellor either. She's not stupid; she knows what a loss of face and authority the result was."
Election analysis showed yesterday how the CDU lost its staggering 20 point lead in six weeks to finish just one percentage point ahead of the SPD on Sunday evening.
Confusion over its tax policies and fear of a grand coalition with the SPD drove traditional CDU voters over to the FDP, according to polling agencies. Some 41 per cent of FDP voters on Sunday admitted they were in fact CDU refugees, explaining the FDP's three point surge in support to 10 per cent.
The SPD came out on top in 12 of 15 federal states, but suffered heavy losses when almost 8 per cent of its traditional voters, workers and the unemployed, drifted off to the Left Party. One in four of Germany's five million unemployed voted for the election alliance between former SPD left-wingers and the reformed communists.
It captured 10 per cent of the vote, making it the fourth largest parliamentary grouping.
As political leaders began what is sure to be a long period of horse-trading, the heads of Germany's opinion polling agencies were at a loss to explain how they were all so completely wrong in their election forecasts. They all predicted at least 41 per cent for the CDU, six points above the final result.