US Election:The resounding victory of former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee in Iowa's Republican caucuses means the race for the Republicans' presidential nomination remains up for grabs among at least four candidates and may not be resolved until 22 states vote in a climactic "Super Tuesday" next month.
"This keeps the race completely wide open," said pollster Whit Ayres. "This is still the most open race for a Republican nomination in modern memory."
Huckabee, a Baptist minister-turned-politician who was almost unknown outside his home state as recently as last summer, drew deeply on the party's most conservative supporters on Thursday evening to score a surging, decisive victory over former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.
In a poll conducted among those attending Republican caucuses, half of the 60 per cent of voters who described themselves as "born-again or evangelical Christians" backed Mr Huckabee.
And of the nine out of 10 Republicans describing themselves as either very or somewhat conservative, he won 70 per cent support.
Huckabee also beat Romney among both sexes, and in all age groups, and scored heavily with voters who believed the candidate's most important characteristic was "saying what he believes" and "sharing my values".
But the race for the Republican nomination moves next to New Hampshire, where Christian conservatives are a much smaller share of the electorate - and where polls suggest Huckabee stands virtually no chance of winning. Instead, the race there is principally between Romney and Arizona senator John McCain. After New Hampshire, the campaign moves to Michigan and South Carolina, where Huckabee, Romney and McCain all appear competitive - and then to Florida, where former New York mayor Rudolph Giuliani is spending millions of dollars on a risky late-state strategy to seize control of the race.
"This is a big win for Huckabee . . . But it's also a victory for McCain," said Scott Reed, a Republican strategist who is unaligned in the presidential race.
"It's a victory for McCain in that the race is now broken up, and it's coming into a part of the calendar that's favourable to McCain: New Hampshire and Michigan."
McCain, who spent little time or money campaigning in Iowa, finished in a virtual tie for third place there with former senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee.
If Romney had won in Iowa, he would have gained a boost for his New Hampshire campaign - and a chance to score wins in the first two contests of the nomination campaign. Instead, he now risks two losses in a row.
"This race is going to extend to February 5th," Reed predicts, citing the date when 15 states will hold primary elections and seven more will hold caucuses.
"It's too fragmented to finish before then. And there are too many delegates on February 5th for candidates to pass up."
In recent years, the party has most often entered an election year with a leading candidate who, while often challenged by upstarts, most often went on to win.
"This year, there's no heir apparent," noted Whit Ayres.- (Los Angeles Times)