FOR ALMOST three decades, the congressional seat that includes Staten Island and a slice of Brooklyn has been a reliably Republican redoubt, the last conservative bastion in a city that is so overwhelmingly left-leaning and Democratic that it has become synonymous with "liberal" and "elite".
However after a series of twists and turns that has shocked even jaded New Yorkers, the 13th Congressional District seat is now rated by Democrats nationally as their surest bet for a capture in November. Stunned Republicans are left lamenting how their once-safe district has become the Unlucky 13th.
Former borough president Guy Molinari, who held the seat for nine years before handing it over to his daughter, Susan Molinari, said: "This is going Democratic, I don't think there's any question about that. "It's sad losing this seat. It's bad for the city."
Democrats are banking on city councillor Michael McMahon.
Loss of the 13th district seat would only add to the woes of the Republican Party statewide, which was once dominated by figures such as Nelson Rockefeller and Alfonse D'Amato. Democrats hold the governor's office, both US Senate seats and the state Assembly, and they are within striking distance of taking control of the state Senate next week.
Only six of the state's 29 members of Congress are Republican, and Democrats are eyeing two seats as prime targets: the 13th and the 29th districts in western New York. The Republican Party's troubles are so bad that many
Republicans are openly pleading with former mayor Rudy Giuliani to get into the governor's race in 2010, if for no other reason than to try to resuscitate the state party.
The implosion in Staten Island began in May, when popular Republican representative Vito Fossella, who has held the seat since 1997, was arrested in Virginia for drunken driving. Then it was discovered he had a mistress and an out-of-wedlock child.
To replace Mr Fossella, the Staten Island Republican establishment settled on Francis Powers, a retired Wall Street executive and major donor. In June, though, Mr Powers died of a heart attack.
Then former state assemblyman Robert Straniere stepped forward - much to the chagrin of party leaders. Mr Straniere served 24 years in the legislature in the state capital Albany, but was dogged by questions about his tangled personal finances, bad property deals and failed businesses.
Mr Straniere won a bitter primary against cardiologist Jamshad Wyne after a campaign that included accusations that Wyne was using the nickname "Jim" to conceal his Pakistani and Muslim origins. Guy Molinari and other prominent Republicans, including Mr Giuliani, have declined to endorse Mr Straniere.
"Straniere is a very bad choice for the Republican Party," said Mr Molinari.
Mr Straniere said the infighting is about personal score-settling because he has refused to follow the party establishment.
"I'm a conservative Republican with a strong independent streak. I'm beholden to no party bosses."
Democrats still have the edge in voter registration, by about five to three, but Staten Island's Democrats tend to be socially conservative. Mr Straniere said he would be helped by his Italian surname in the nation's most heavily Italian- American congressional district.
Given the Republican Party's turmoil, Mr McMahon, the Democratic nominee, could be counted as one of the luckiest candidates running for office this year. "We like to say the planets are aligned," he quipped.
- (Los Angeles Times-Washington Post service)