Gains in every part of the country show policy of outright opposition to Government paying off, writes STEPHEN COLLINSPolitical Editor
THE LABOUR Party's surge to the top of the ratings for the first time ever is the big news from the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll, which shows that the next election will be a genuine three-way contest with Fianna Fáil trailing badly in third place.
The big jump in Labour support has come after a successful party conference in April at which party leader Eamon Gilmore insisted he should be recognised as a realistic candidate for the taoiseach’s office. The poll gives credence to that claim.
Mr Gilmore’s continuing big lead over the other party leaders in terms of satisfaction rating gives added credibility to his bid to become the first Labour taoiseach.
The party has clearly struck a chord with the public in its uncompromising attacks on the Government not only for its past record but for the austerity measures aimed at reining in the current level of borrowing.
The striking thing about the Labour performance is that the gains have been made in every part of the country. The party has consolidated its position as the biggest party in Dublin where it has 30 per cent of the core vote, almost double that of its nearest rival.
The clear message is that Labour should run at least two candidates in every constituency in the capital, including three-seaters, if it is to capitalise fully on its high ratings and translate votes into extra seats.
The next strongest region for Labour is the rest of Leinster where it gets 22 per cent – the same level of support as Fine Gael – followed by Munster where it is on 20 per cent, just one point behind its Opposition rival. In Connacht-Ulster the party is now getting a very respectable 15 per cent rating.
In class terms, Labour is the strongest among C2 working-class voters, where it is on 28 per cent. However, it also gets more support than any other party among the best-off AB voters where it is on 24 per cent. It is on 23 per cent among lower middle-class C2 voters and among the poorest DE social category, but gets just 3 per cent support from farmers.
In age terms, the strongest support for Labour comes from the 35 to 49 age group where it is on 25 per cent. Its weakest age group is the 18 to 24 category where it gets 17 per cent but among all other groups, including the over 65s, the party is on 22 or 23 per cent.
The slippage in the Fine Gael vote has come at a bad time for the party as the Government reaches the three-year mark.
The strongest region for the party is Connacht-Ulster where its support of 26 per cent has remained solid while it has declined marginally in the rest of Leinster and Munster to the 20 to 22 per cent range.
The real worry for Fine Gael is Dublin where its vote has slipped to 16 per cent, nearly half that of Labour. In June of last year, on the eve of the local elections, positions were almost exactly reversed with Fine Gael on almost double the Labour vote.
In social terms, Fine Gael is strongest among farmers, where it scores 41 per cent. Its next strongest category is middle-class voters but its support base among the DE social class has declined markedly over the past year or so.
The decline in the satisfaction rating of the party leader Enda Kenny to 24 per cent is another problem for Fine Gael. Among his own party voters, 56 per cent are satisfied and 27 per cent dissatisfied, however, Labour voters are even more dissatisfied with his performance than Fianna Fáil voters.
Fine Gael has prided itself on coming up with a range of policies to offer the electorate as an alternative to the Government’s approach like the new ERA plan for job creation through the sale of state enterprises or the political reform proposals, including the abolition of the Seanad.
It appears the voters are responding better to the outright opposition of the Labour Party.
As for Fianna Fáil, the poll undermines the party’s hope that it might be on the road to political recovery. It has slipped back even further into third place behind the two main Opposition parties and will lose around half its current Dáil seats if there is no change between now and election time.
The scale of Fianna Fáil’s problem is illustrated by the fact that it continues to trail in third place in Dublin on a paltry 11 per cent of the vote. Things are getting to be as bad in other parts of the country as well with the party dropping to 15 per cent in Munster and 19 per cent in the rest of Leinster and Connacht-Ulster.
Across the age groups, Fianna Fáil does best among the over-65s where it is on 20 per cent. This reflects a long-established trend but even in this category its support has declined.
The party does worst among the 35- to 49-year-olds, where its vote has declined to just 12 per cent, and only a little better among the 25- to 34-year-olds, where it gets 16 per cent.
In terms of social class, Fianna Fáil does best among farmers, where it gets 25 per cent and it does worst among the C2 social category where it is on 12 per cent. The party is on 14 per cent in the C1 category, 16 per cent in the DE group and 18 per cent among AB voters.
Green Party support has improved a little to 3 per cent. Surprisingly, the party’s strongest region is Connacht-Ulster where it is on 4 per cent, followed by Dublin at 3 per cent and 2 per cent in the other regions. Party leader John Gormley’s satisfaction rating is down to 21 per cent, after a slight recovery in the last poll.
Sinn Féin has also improved since the last poll. Its strongest region is Connacht-Ulster, where it gets 9 per cent, followed by Dublin and Munster where it is on 8 per cent.
In class terms, the party’s vote is heavily concentrated among C2 and DE voters and it attracts very little support among higher earners. In age terms, it does best among the two youngest age categories between 18 and 34.
The level of support for Independents and Others is strongest in Munster at 12 per cent and Dublin at 8 per cent and in class terms is highest among the best-off AB voters.