Former Taoiseach, Mr Albert Reynolds, seems set to win the Fianna Fail presidential nomination when the parliamentary party votes today, after a period of intense lobbying, speculation and confusion within the party. In spite of last-minute support for the Queen's University law lecturer, Prof Mary McAleese - which was boosted by some Cabinet Ministers - sources said that up to last night, Mr Reynolds seemed set to win the contest.
"He has a good solid majority that is holding up," one source close to Mr Reynolds said. He could not, however, say how many votes had been accumulated. Strategists supporting Prof McAleese warned, however, that she was capable of "upsetting the apple cart".
Meanwhile, Cabinet sources last night denied that the Presidency had been raised at a meeting of Ministers and Ministers of State at party headquarters in Mount Street. The issue was, however, discussed informally by Ministers afterwards and sources said "the party faces a very difficult campaign and must select a candidate who has a very real chance of winning".
On the eve of voting, speculation was rife that former Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Michael O'Kennedy, was withdrawing from the race but that rumour collapsed last night with his confirmation that he was still in contention. He is understood to have been hurt at an impression in the media that it was "a two-horse race between Reynolds and McAleese". In a three-person contest, he is not, however, expected to poll strongly.
Senior sources in the party said the nomination of Ms Adi Roche by the Labour Party had intensified the belief among some in Fianna Fail that Prof McAleese would be in a stronger position to win the election on October 30th. A rash of informal contacts between her supporters, involving some Cabinet members, was conducted last night and was expected to continue right up to voting today.
The momentum behind Prof McAleese increased after the Minister for Defence, Mr Andrews, declared publicly - after an earlier discussion with the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern - that he would not be seeking the nomination today and would be throwing his weight behind Mr Reynolds whom he strongly praised for his role in the peace process.
While Mr O'Kennedy was not available for comment last night, sources in Leinster House said he was "upset" at what he perceived as poor treatment by the party hierarchy. There is also evidence of a strong view within the parliamentary party, particularly among back-benchers, that the Fianna Fail presidential candidate should come from within the party's ranks and the banner should not be carried by a non-political outsider. Under a change in the rules governing the selection of a presidential candidate (in 1993), the entire parliamentary party - consisting of deputies, senators and MEPs - will be permitted to vote for the first time.
All but three or four of the 114-strong group will gather in the Fianna Fail rooms on the fifth floor of Leinster House and Dr Rory O'Hanlon will chair the meeting.
The Minister for Justice, Mr Burke, will be in Belfast for the Stormont talks; the Minister for the Environment, Mr Dempsey, is abroad, and Mr Jim Fitzsimons MEP is ill.
After seeking nominations, the candidates are expected to be offered about five minutes each to address the meeting. The ballot papers will then be handed out and the voting conducted in secret.