Egypt's largest militant group began 1997 weakened by nearly five year's of vicious fighting with the police. Its founding members were almost entirely behind bars, the remainder in exile: the political strategists in Europe and the military leadership in Afghanistan. But it was still able to mount dramatic acts of violence, as it showed in February when its gunmen walked into a Coptic Christian youth group meeting in the southern province of Minya and sprayed the teenagers with gunfire, killing 10. Now, as the year comes to a close, the group cannot even agree on whether or not it was behind the massacre of 58 foreign tourists in a temple in Upper Egypt last month.
Divisions in the organisation's leadership first burst into the open last July when leaders in Egypt called for an unconditional ceasefire with the government from their prison cells. Their expatriate comrades were quick to react. Al-Gama'a al-Islamiya affirms confidence in its leaders behind bars but does not exclude the possibility that this declaration is a government-inspired trick, they said in a statement. In order for the group to stop its attacks, they added, the government must first apply Islamic law, release thousands of alleged Gama'a members from prison and stop using military courts to try militants. The rank and file's view of their imprisoned leaders' apparent moderation, made clear by the killing of four policemen and two civilians in the southern governorate of Minya a month later, was seen as a sign of the expatriate leaders' growing strength.
The government, which rejected the initial appeal to end violence as a militant ploy, responded with its biggest security sweep in Minya for five years, during the course of which 13 alleged Gama'a members were killed and 100 arrested. The authorities also continued their controversial practice of trying large groups of alleged militants in military courts. At least 13 were sentenced to death this year. Not surprisingly, a further call for an end to hostilities by the imprisoned leadership was ignored and the cycle of violence continued. It was against this backdrop that the Luxor massacre took place on November 17. There now seems little doubt that the killings took most - if not all - of the expatriate Gama'a leadership by surprise, despite an initial claim of responsibility. Also indicative of their confusion over the event was their disagreement on how to contain the negative propaganda it generated, particularly among Egyptians, as was made clear by two separate statements this week, one vowing to end the killing of tourists, the other vowing to continue. Most Egyptian analysts see the contradictory messages as a sign that the two groups of exiles have split, with the more radical Afghanistan-based leaders taking the hardline stance. But the splintering of the Gama'a may turn out to be a hollow victory for the state. An article that appeared in a semi-official newspaper after the attack shows why. Featuring the family of Medhat Abdel-Rahman, an unemployed high-school graduate who was the first Luxor assailant to be identified, it contained an extraordinary plea by his mother for the release of her other sons, who had been taken by the police as hostages for their brother two and a half years ago.
That the young men had spent so long in custody simply for being related to a terrorist was considered so commonplace that it did not even merit comment in the article, a stark reminder of the reality of life in Egypt's southern provinces, where poverty and lack of hope are exacerbated by official neglect and police brutality. It is this reality that will dictate the future of militancy in Egypt. Whether or not the Gama'a has lost its hold on the region, the young Medhats, whose expectations of a better future are dashed, or their brothers, embittered and brutalised by arbitrary police actions, will continue to vent their frustration.
In a state that allows almost no opposition, there is no political avenue open to them. And with the Gama'a leadership in disarray, many fear that small, locally-based groups of radical young militants, such as the one that carried out the massacre in Luxor, will rise up instead, but that without any political vision or cohesive leadership their attacks will be far more random and violent than what we have seen before.
Perhaps by the end of next year the authorities will be wishing the Gama'a was strong again.