FRANCE: The French socialist presidential candidate, Ségolène Royal's, hitherto charmed campaign has run into trouble. The shift in the country's mood has so far found expression in only one opinion poll, but the change is as palpable as a sudden cold spell.
That her right-wing rival, Nicolas Sarkozy, would benefit from his Pharaonic investiture as the UMP candidate on Sunday was expected. But his speech was so effective that even the left-wing newspapers Le Monde and Libération praised him.
"The candidate of the right gave an impressive performance," Libération said. "Yes, this man is dangerous: above all, for the left . . . He triumphed through energy, talent, organisation . . ."
To regain lost ground, Ms Royal's staff are preparing what they predict will be a galvanising speech about the merits of labour and effort versus handouts - one of the central themes of Mr Sarkozy's investiture address.
To make matters worse for Ms Royal, Mr Sarkozy's breakthrough coincided with chaos in her own camp, where a row over fiscal policy has raised questions about her relationship with François Hollande, the socialist party leader and father of her four children.
On January 11th, Mr Hollande reiterated earlier statements that if the socialists won the presidential election in May they would raise taxes for the affluent - a commitment made in the June 2006 party platform.
This time, Mr Hollande specified that "rich" people earning €4,000 per month or more would be specially targeted. Mr Sarkozy's ruling UMP claimed in reply that €4,000 was a middle- class salary.
Ms Royal publicly chastised her companion, saying: "There will be no new taxes that would be interpreted as discouraging labour or effort." Economic recovery will be achieved "without increasing taxes or social security payments", she promised.
One of her aides noted that "after being identified for a long time with nationalisations, we mustn't be identified with taxation today."
Whatever possessed Mr Hollande to make such a statement, three months before the first round of the presidential election? There is talk of little else in the new year's wishes receptions that can be a full-time occupation in Paris in January.
Speculation centres on Mr Hollande's alleged bitterness at not being the socialist candidate himself. Could he be trying, perhaps subconsciously, to sabotage his partner's campaign?
Ms Royal has established a three-man committee on fiscal policy, led by Dominique Strauss-Kahn, her erstwhile rival for the socialist nomination and a former finance minister.
The move was meant to signal reconciliation, but she ignored her other rival, Laurent Fabius, also a former finance minister.
Mr Strauss-Kahn told French radio that Mr Hollande had spoken "not as first secretary but in a personal capacity". When asked to explain himself this week, Mr Hollande said Ms Royal "will arbitrate" discord within the party over taxation.
"What policy? She doesn't have one yet!" he said when asked to explain the contradiction within the socialists' first couple. "A time will come when the candidate and the party will adopt the same platform," he predicted.
Public confusion has been aggravated by Ms Royal's tendency to evade questions. In a recent interview with French regional newspapers, she was asked whether she would continue the tradition of a presidential amnesty for traffic fines. "I won't answer that with a knife to my throat," she said.
Last year the New York Times asked her what she would do about terrorism and Iraq. "Would you ask me that if I were a man?" she replied.
Earlier this month in China, Ms Royal said visiting the Great Wall inspired "bravitude", a word she invented. "It's poetic; a density of thought which conveys itself in a word at the moment it is spoken," she said in her defence when mocked back in Paris.
The UMP criticised Ms Royal for praising the efficiency of the Chinese court system, noting that thousands of prisoners are executed in China each year.