After a bank holiday weekend marked by frustration and delays among those attempting to travel to the west of Ireland by train, the news from all sides in the rail dispute is it is going to get worse before it gets better.
Iarnrod Eireann is already predicting a permanent loss of freight customers to road-haulage companies and a crisis of confidence in public transport which forces customers to find alternative arrangements from which they might not be lured back.
Tourism interests in the west and south-west blame a 20 per cent slump in revenues on the rail dispute and say the figures for September and October are likely to be much worse.
In Killarney, the Rail Action Group says the slump has so far cost them £25 million in lost revenue.
The Chambers of Commerce of Ireland (COCOI) has called for the workers in dispute to be dismissed if they will not work and jailed if they continue to disrupt traffic, while in Louth, Meath and Kildare there are serious safety concerns about overcrowding on the available commuter trains.
COCOI estimates the cost of the dispute at £3 million per week, and says it is assembling a group of businesses prepared to sue Iarnrod Eireann for their losses.
Mr Barry Kenny of Iarnrod Eireann says the company is facing long-term damage at a time when confidence, accompanied by the first major investment period in decades, was returning in the rail network.
Worst hit is the Westport route where Iarnrod Eireann says just one train has served the popular tourist destination since the seven-week-old Irish Locomotive Drivers' Association (ILDA) dispute began. Iarnrod Eireann has just 58 per cent of its Westport/Ballina trains running, and these go only as far as Athlone, the remaining journey being made by bus.
On the Tralee line, which also serves Killarney, 59 per cent of trains ran during July; just 65 per cent of trains ran on the Limerick line; 84 per cent on the Galway line; 58 per cent on the Drogheda suburban line; and 82 per cent on the Waterford line.
The service on the Cork line was 57 per cent of what it should have been in July. The Sligo service was disrupted slightly by engineering works unconnected to the dispute. A full service continued on the Arklow and Rosslare and Belfast lines.
However, according to Mr Kenny even the routes where most of the trains still ran suffered badly from the dispute. "Even though most trains still operated to places like Waterford and Galway, the passenger numbers fell because they don't know when they could get back for certain," he said.
It is this lack of certainty which undermines public transport credibility, according to Mr Kenny, who maintains that when dependability is gone people find they just cannot take the risk.
Those with train or boat schedules to meet are the obvious ones at risk, but Mr Kenny says the damage reaches further than that. Those going to conferences, meetings, organising seminars etc will think again about planning their event around the train, perhaps choosing a venue which has road access. It could take years to get them back.
Mr Kenny also says the situation with regard to the IFI fertiliser plant in Arklow, Co Wicklow, has disturbed many of Iarnrod Eireann's freight customers who will have similar difficulty in coming back.
But while he is looking at long-term damage, business interests, particularly in the west, are not looking beyond the next few months. In July and August the sheer volume of tourists in places such as Westport and Killarney means hotels and guesthouses have not suffered as badly as they expect they will next month.
Mr Conor Hennigan, manager of the Great Southern Hotel in Killarney, said the hotel "did not have anything like the pick-up in early July that we would have expected." While August was well booked, he said, he was concerned about the September and October business from the "Golden Years" customers who, being over 65, take advantage of both the train and the station's proximity to the hotel.
A similar sentiment was expressed by Mr Joe Corcoran of the Castlecourt Hotel in Westport, Co Mayo, who said he, too, was worried about the "Golden Years" customers being able to reach Westport. On Friday 10 members of the ILDA picketing Heuston Station vowed to go on "for as long as it takes".
While about a quarter of the ILDA drivers have returned, reluctantly, to work since the dispute began, the incidence of secondary picketing at the weekend could lead to a situation where DART and bus services are affected.
The Minister for Public Enterprise, Ms O'Rourke, speaking at the weekend after she met business interests affected by the dispute, repeated her intention not to intervene in the dispute, maintaining she was precluded from doing so by considerations of contempt of court.
The ILDA is seeking to appeal a High Court decision which ruled it had no negotiating rights at Iarnrod Eireann. With the Labour Relations Commission also deciding not to become involved, and Iarnrod Eireann apparently refusing to consider third-party mediation, the prospects for an end to the dispute look bleak.
