US:Can 'Rovism' and the Republicans survive the departure from the Bush administration of tactician Karl Rove, ask Tom Hamburgerand Peter Wallstenin Washington
In almost a decade as the guiding political strategist for George W Bush and the Republicans, Karl Rove was often hailed as a genius.
He masterminded Bush's rise to national prominence, directed two winning presidential campaigns and wrote a campaign playbook for Republican Party success in Congress and state houses across the country.
Some party strategists, including Rove himself, even dreamed that the system Rove created would make the party invincible, able to dominate American politics for decades to come.
Now, as Rove prepares to leave the White House at the end of August, the party that bears his imprint faces a difficult question:
Can "Rovism" survive Rove? Will Rove's unique combination of innovative campaign techniques and polarising, hardball tactics translate into continuing, long-term success for his party, or has it seen its best days?
One thing seems clear: history will rank Rove as one of the most powerful political advisers of modern times with his influence stretching beyond campaign strategy to policy decisions and the inner workings of the most prosaic of federal agencies.
Looking ahead to the 2008 elections and beyond, even some Republicans say that while some of Rove's techniques have revolutionised politics and changed the way both parties organise their campaigns, other parts of Rovism contained the seeds of its eventual destruction.
Rove's relentlessly polarising tactics and his over-the-top use of government power for political purposes, critics say, were bound to wear out their welcome with the fundamentally pragmatic and moderate electorate.
"Karl will always be known as a brilliant political operative who has a great tactical sense," said Tony Fabrizio, a Republican pollster, "but tactics only get you so far. Did they change politics forever? No." He believes Rove's strategy has alienated middle-of- the-road voters and left the party in worse shape.
How Rove's approach could misfire in the evolving political climate was illustrated last year when President Bush, following his 2004 re-election, sought to draw new converts to the GOP cause by pushing for creation of private investment accounts in the pension system.
In the Rove playbook, the proposal - with its call for a new "ownership society" - would attract younger voters distrustful of government and fearful that Washington would not deliver its promised retirement benefits for them.
The campaign failed. Democrats charged that Bush and the Republicans would weaken or destroy the whole pension programme system.
Rove also played a major role in pushing for an overhaul of the nation's immigration laws to offer some illegal immigrants a way to become citizens, as well as tighten border security. The effort became a high-profile failure when hardline congressional Republicans deserted the White House to torpedo the bipartisan immigration Bill embodying many of Rove's ideas.
He told reporters on Monday that he was worried about that failure's impact on the party's effort to court Hispanic voters, which he saw as a key to his quest for a long-lasting Republican majority.
Rove's aggressive techniques also have drawn the scrutiny of federal investigators and provided fodder for a string of congressional inquiries, though some of the latter may lose steam with him out of government.
Rove's defenders argue that Republicans' current troubles - sagging presidential approval ratings, loss of the House and Senate, a clamorous fight over the party's 2008 presidential nominee - all stem from a single cause: the deeply unpopular war in Iraq, not from Rove or his methods.
In this view, if it weren't for the war, Rove and his party would still be flying high and, once Bush leaves the White House, Republicans will be well positioned to regain their old dominance.
In the short term at least, Rove's influence seems likely to survive. In an interview on Monday, he said he would take no formal role in any of the 2008 campaigns. But Rove acolytes are playing leading roles in every major campaign and strategists say they plan to adhere to much of the Rove playbook.
"I think we'll see campaigns employing Karl's strategy and tactics for years to come," said Mark McKinnon, who worked with Rove on Bush's campaigns and now advises the presidential campaign of Senator John McCain.
At its heart, Rove's system had three major components.
Using powerful computer systems, modern marketing tools, micro-targeting of supporters and sophisticated get-out-the-vote techniques, he revolutionised the nuts and bolts of campaigning. Republican strategists said on Monday that that would be a lasting piece of Rove's legacy.
His methods enabled party operatives to scour even the most heavily Democratic precincts for potential Republican votes, identifying individuals whose lifestyle habits, consumer preferences and other characteristics made them potential supporters.
The technology gap that opened up between the two parties so concerned Democrats that some leaders such as Harold Ickes, a close adviser to Bill and Hillary Rodham Clinton, have been constructing a high-priced programme to counter the Republicans' massive "Voter Vault" database. "Imitation is the best flattery," Rove said Monday.
He added that the GOP retained an advantage, despite his party's losses last year.
Another big part of Rovism was making sure federal officials throughout the government understood party election priorities and helped party candidates in every way possible, from decisions on highway contracts to environmental policy.
Others, including Democrats, have used government policy-making to advance their political agendas, but Rove carried the effort to new heights.
While this programme may have boosted Republican support in battleground states, it also contributed to controversies that fuelled Democratic congressional investigations and included a subpoena for Rove to testify about what role if any he played in the firing of several US attorneys.
Finally, instead of trying to appeal to the independent middle of the electorate, Rove pushed polarising wedge issues such as abortion, gay marriage and gun rights, in order to maximise support from the Republicans' conservative base. The same tactics were used to draw single-issue voters who might otherwise have voted Democratic or stayed home into the Republican fold.
This divisive tactic was the key to Rove's overall strategy of trying to build slender but committed majorities - sometimes called the "50-per-cent-plus-1" approach. It was the most controversial weapon in Rove's arsenal and the one critics say may spoil his dream of a long-term Republican majority.