THE RUC officer investigating the foiled IRA bomb attack in north Belfast on Tuesday rejected the notion that the IRA was playing some sinister cat and mouse game with the British army, the RUC and the British government.
Supt Mike Brown was in no, doubt that the 1,000lb bomb discovered in the grounds of Belfast Castle on Tuesday was designed for the "mass murder" of police officers and British troops.
"My professional opinion is that this was no game. We had a massive device here and I have no doubts about the intentions to set that device off and cause mass murder as a result of it," he said.
Nonetheless, the high number of recent failed or aborted IRA operations has raised questions about the security situation.
Is the IRA now uncharacteristically incompetent when it comes to murdering people, or have the RUC and British army, with some additional good luck, got the measure of them?
Certainly the number of botched IRA attacks has prompted considerable speculation.
But one security source suggested that too much should not be read into these operations. What should always be remembered is that the IRA has the capability in personnel and arms to be dangerous and destructive.
"The policy of the IRA always has been to leave us wondering. Throughout the Troubles it was the IRA's policy to turn on or turn off violence as they pleased and to vary the nature of that violence," he said.
"One month it might be carbombs, the next mortar attacks, the next sniper killings, the next attacks on security bases and so on.
"The policy always was to be as unpredictable as possible to create confusion," he said.
Those like Mr John Hume who insist the republican movement genuinely wants to call a ceasefire in return for inclusive talks involving Sinn Fein argue that, since the Canary Wharf bombing last February, the IRA for much of the time has operated a de facto ceasefire.
This, they argue, indicates that the republican movement wants to enter the political arena solely and is prepared to put the leash on the hardline elements who prefer the Kalashnikov to the ballot box.
One theory is that if there is a phoney war it is a means of ensuring harmony between the so called hawks and doves in the ruling IRA Army Council. By engaging in "psychological warfare", the IRA is still centre stage, grabbing the headlines but not killing anybody and thus, the theory goes, keeping the troops happy.
Equally, without loss of life, it allows the IRA to demonstrate what it can and might do if there is no British government move to allow Sinn Fein into inclusive talks.
The number of failed attacks is surprisingly high. The IRA brought its war back to Northern Ireland in October by exploding two car bombs in the British army headquarters in Lisburn, killing one soldier and injuring over 30 soldiers and civilians.
Since then, it has been unsuccessful in several operations. For instance, in mid November, an IRA landmine attack was foiled in Derry while, towards the end of the month, the British army discovered over 2,500 lb of explosives near the army base in Armagh.
On December 21st, a 600lb car bomb was defused outside the RUC headquarters in Derry. This was claimed by the "Continuity Army Council", although there were suspicions it was sanctioned by the IRA.
In early December, mortar bombs, incendiary bombs and ammunition were found at a house in west Belfast, while on December 12th a suspected ambush was thwarted when a Mark 16 mortar bomb was made safe on a road close to a north Belfast British army base.
Just before Christmas, the IRA shot a policeman in the foot inside the Royal Belfast Hospital for Sick Children as he was guarding the DUP secretary, Mr Nigel Dodds, and his wife, Diane, who were visiting their son.
It denied it was trying to kill Mr Dodds and said its targets were the RUC officers.
Finally, over the new year the IRA abandoned a 1,000lb bomb in the grounds of Belfast Castle, claiming it did so because of "security force activity" in the area.
The unsuccessful operations have raised the possibility that the IRA has lost its military edge in the 17 months of its ceasefire, which was broken with February's Canary Wharf bomb.
But that is a notion the security sources would dismiss as fanciful, especially considering the persistent reports that the IRA, while not engaged in violence, planned and practised operations throughout the ceasefire.
As one observer said: "If they can explode a bomb in the British army headquarters in Lisburn, why can't they explode a bomb in north Belfast or Armagh or Derry?"
The RUC is dismissive of such speculation. Whether or not the IRA was engaged in a phoney war was irrelevant. What mattered was that intelligence reports pointed to the IRA planning to escalate its campaign of violence. There was a need to be vigilant.
Supt Brown insisted yesterday that the security situation remained "very serious". He added: "Given what we have been telling you, anybody would be extremely foolish not to be concerned about the prospects for the coming weeks."
