Unionists are locked in a bitter struggle for Strangford, writes Joe Humphreys
It doesn't take long for Northern elections to get personal. Gareth McGimpsey, the surprise candidate for the Ulster Unionists in Strangford, first met sitting MP Iris Robinson last Monday and thought her "very nice".
Buoyed by the experience, he said: "A lot of the bitterness between the DUP and the UUP seems to have died down. There's not the same nastiness now."
Before the end of the week, however, Robinson was accusing McGimpsey of "below-the-belt tactics" and lacking political acumen.
"I don't rate him. He had no political involvement. He has no political standing," said the DUP matriarch and wife of party deputy leader Peter Robinson.
Mind you, McGimpsey was quickly giving as good as he got, questioning Robinson's commitment to the job, as well as her physical health.
"She has proven over the last four years she is not up to it," he said. "If she is not well she should come out and tell people she is not well." The North's easternmost constituency, bordered by the Ards peninsula, is a two-horse race between the unionist candidates.
Robinson claimed the seat by 1,110 votes in 2001 after then sitting MP John Taylor (now Lord Kilclooney) dropped out of the contest before election day.
The DUP made further gains over the Ulster Unionists in the 2003 Assembly elections, leaving Robinson - a poll-topping MLA - a firm favourite for re-election to Westminster.
She stressed, however: "I'm taking nothing for granted." On a cold and drizzly evening in Dundonald, the woman who lists as her interests "charity fundraising and interior design" was hopping from door-to-door at a frightening rate.
Her work ethic has impressed many in the 80 per cent Protestant constituency, an area with the second-highest concentration of Presbyterians in the North. Where some politicians got short shrift on the doorstep, Robinson - by and large - got thanks for calling by.
One woman in Dunleady Manor apologised profusely for stopping the MP to ask her a question.
"Peter, Nigel and 'The Doc' make the case for policy matters. I see myself as a worker more on the bread-and-butter social issues," she declared, and then was off again, down another driveway.
Certainly she gives the impression of activity. She claims to have "questioned more ministers" than all but one of the 659 members of the House of Commons.
A local councillor, MLA and MP, she runs "satellite surgeries" in local Orange halls and claims to have just one Saturday a month off.
But McGimpsey, a son of South Belfast MLA Michael McGimpsey, tells a different story. "She has only spoken in 17 debates in the House of Commons," he said. "I will be a full-time MP."
The 33-year-old father of two was selected last October ahead of party stalwarts Dermot Nesbitt, Jack Irwin and David Drysdale.
A graduate of Queens University, where he got a PhD in politics, he has always had a hankering to run for office.
"I originally put my name forward not expecting to win," he said. "I've got to be realistic. I'm a serious underdog, and it's always extremely hard to shift a sitting MP. In 2003, we were over 7,000 votes behind. So anything less than 7,000 will be an improvement."
Alliance candidate Kieran McCarthy may benefit from McGimpsey's inexperience if the UUP vote falls. However, an expected low turnout will damage his party's chances.
"People are disillusioned. They voted us into the Assembly and nothing happened, so they're asking, 'Why should we bother to vote?'," said McCarthy.
The fear for parties like Alliance is not so much a poor performance in the Westminster poll but a collapse in the vote in the locals.
Twenty years a councillor, McCarthy said ruefully: "I feel like I'm just going for more punishment."
Joe Boyle of the SDLP and Dermot Kennedy of Sinn Féin also line up for the Westminster contest but are expected to make little impact outside nationalist areas.
Sinn Féin created one of the talking-points of the local elections by declaring Tony Lacken for Ards Borough Council, the first ever candidate for the party in the area.
The DUP has enjoyed the lion's share of council seats in the constituency and would be expected to build on its tally in the event of a low turnout.