Russian troops continued to make gains throughout the zone of conflict in Chechnya as the country waited for tomorrow's expected assault on Grozny. But there were mixed signals from politicians and generals on whether or not the attack would take place and no sign of any refugees using an "escape corridor" from the city.
Foreign Minister Mr Igor Ivanov was involved in telephone diplomacy to assure western governments that innocent civilians in the Chechen capital would not be "destroyed" as the leaflets dropped on Grozny earlier this week suggested. But the army was taking a different line.
Col-Gen Valery Manilov, deputy chief of Russia's General Staff, spoke softly and at first hearing his words were comforting. There would, he told viewers on the pro-government ORT television channel, be no "storming of Grozny". His elaboration on this theme, however, gave cause for alarm.
"The city will not be taken in the direct meaning of this word, by storm or a direct offensive by ground forces," he smilingly told viewers. But Grozny would, he said, be "cleared of terrorists and bandits by those means that have already been approved and whose efficiency was shown especially during the second stage of the anti-terrorist operation in Gudermes, Achkoi Martan, Argun and Urus Martan".
The words may have been intended to reassure Russian parents whose conscript sons were serving in Chechnya but translated into plain English they meant that Russia was readying itself to launch an air and artillery bombardment which would completely lay waste to what remains of the Chechen capital. These are precisely the tactics used against Gudermes and the other towns mentioned by Gen Manilov and this is what most Russians expect will happen, if not tomorrow, then sooner or later.
As in most conflicts, both sides are indulging in blatant propaganda, with Russia accusing the Chechens of using civilians as human shields and Chechen militants claiming that Russia has used chemical weapons against the civilian population.
There is little doubt, however, that some Chechen warlords have been using barbarous methods of torture and execution against Russian and foreign hostages, thousands of whom have been taken in the past three years.
The Human Rights Watch organisation (HRW), which has a large number of volunteers in the field, has accused Russian forces of attacking civilian refugees in recent days. Its Moscow office reports that at 2 p.m. on December 2nd, Russian warplanes attacked a four-vehicle convoy near the town of Goyty, killing all the passengers in one Niva jeep and two women in another car. A bus from Grozny to Goyty was attacked on the same day and another convoy on December 3rd.
But as TV channels heralded further Russian military triumphs there were signs that the hitherto unbroken unity of the Russian people and politicians behind the military campaign was beginning to splinter. Mr Konstantin Titov, the liberal governor of the Volga city of Samara, warned yesterday that Russia was playing into the hands of Islamic extremists in Chechnya and risked driving Chechen citizens into the embrace of a Messianic figure comparable to the former Iranian leader Ayatollah Khomeini.
The latest opinion polls also show a softening of attitude by the Russian public, which had up to now been wholeheartedly in favour of the war, particularly following the appalling bomb attacks which killed almost 300 people in Moscow and elsewhere in September.
In the last poll by the respected Russian Centre for Public Opinion (VTsIOM) almost half the respondents said they would support peace negotiations if the government proposed them, but 38 per cent still said they would support the war "whatever the price".
Seamus Martin can be contacted by e-mail at: seamus.martin@russia.com
