Powerful Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr will decide within days whether to extend or scrap his Mehdi Army militia ceasefire, a move that will have big repercussions for security in Iraq.
US military officials say Sadr's six-month truce order on August 29th has played a big part in reducing sectarian violence and clashes between the militia and US and Iraqi forces.
A return to hostilities could risk those security gains at a time when Iraqi leaders have begun making some progress toward reconciling majority Shias and minority Sunni Arabs.
Sadr had not made up his mind about the truce, his spokesman Salah al-Ubaidi said today. He said Sadr would issue a statement around February 23rd if he was renewing the truce. Silence would mean it was over.
Many Mehdi Army members and Sadrist political leaders say they want the truce ditched, accusing the security forces of using it to detain many of Sadr's followers.
The son of a revered Shia cleric killed under Saddam Hussein, Sadr led two uprisings against US forces in 2004. He imposed the ceasefire after clashes in August between the Mehdi Army and security forces allied with a rival Shia organisation, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC), in the holy city of Kerbala killed dozens of people.
Sadr vowed to reorganise the splintered militia, which had also been blamed for much of the sectarian fighting in Baghdad that tipped Iraq close to all-out civil war.
The US military commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, said last week that he expected the anti-American cleric to extend the freeze.
A prominent Mehdi Army commander in Baghdad said he believed Sadr would end the ceasefire. "If he does not ... there must be exceptions - of which the most important one is self-defence," said the commander.
The US military has praised Sadr for the truce but has still pursued what it calls "rogue" Mehdi Army militants, who commanders say get funding and weapons from neighbouring Iran.