Under the Microscope:The United Nations has just issued the 2007 edition of World Population Ageing, describing global trends in population ageing and key indicators of ageing for each of the major regions and countries of the world.
The report documents an unprecedented extent of population ageing affecting nearly all countries and bearing major consequences for all facets of life. The current status of population ageing is without parallel in history.
The population ages when the proportion aged 60 and over increases simultaneously with a reduction in the proportion of those under 15, followed shortly by a decline in the proportion of the working ages 15 to 59. The more developed regions of the world have the most aged populations, but ageing is speeding up in all countries. Reductions in fertility have become virtually universal and are a main driver of population ageing.
Population ageing will have major consequences for all facets of human life, economic (economic growth, savings, investments, consumption, labour markets, pensions, taxation, intergenerational transfers), social (family compositions/ living arrangements, housing demand, migration trends, epidemiology, healthcare services) and political (voting patterns and political representation).
Population ageing is enduring. In 1950, 8 per cent of the world population was 60 years or older. This proportion has risen to 11 per cent in 2007 and is expected to reach 22 per cent in 2050. As long as old age mortality continues to decline and fertility remains low. the population will continue to age. We will not return to the young populations our ancestors knew.
These are marked differences in the population proportion of older people between developed and developing regions. More than 20 per cent of the population in more developed regions is currently aged 60 or over and by 2050 it is projected that 33 per cent of the population will be in that age group. In less well-developed countries, 8 per cent of the population is in this older age group and this will increase to 20 per cent by 2050.
The UN report ranks countries by percentage of population aged 60 or over. I will give you the top 10 and the bottom 10 countries in this ranking; the first figure in the brackets after each country's name is its ranking and the second figure is the percentage of the population aged 60 or over: Japan (1, 27.9 per cent), Italy (2, 26.4 per cent), Germany (3, 25.3 per cent), Sweden (4, 24.1 per cent), Greece (5, 23.4 per cent), Austria (6, 23.3 per cent), Bulgaria (7, 22.9 per cent), Belgium (8, 22.9 per cent), Latvia (9, 22.8 per cent), Portugal (10, 22.8 per cent). And the bottom 10: United Arab Emirates (192, 1.7 per cent), Quatar (191, 2.7 per cent), Niger (190, 3.2 per cent), Kuwait (189, 3.4 per cent), Liberia (188, 3.6 per cent), Yemen (187, 3.7 per cent), Uganda (186, 3.8 per cent), Angola (185, 3.9 per cent), Rwanda (184, 4 per cent) and Eritrea (183, 4 per cent). Ireland ranks 50th in this league, with 15.5 per cent of the population aged 60 or over.
The potential support ratio (PSR) is the number of persons aged 15 to 64 per person aged 65 or more, ie the number of potential workers per older person. The PSR tends to fall as the population ages. Between 1950 and 2007, PSR declined worldwide from 12 to nine and is projected to drop to four by 2050. Obviously this has important implications for social security systems, particularly for system where taxes on workers pay the pensions of retirees.
Women live longer than men and so constitute the majority of older people. Women are nearly twice as numerous as men among those aged 80 or more and nearly five times as numerous among centenarians. Because of higher survivorship and lower propensity to remarry, older women are more likely than older men to live alone and are at greater risk of experiencing social isolation.
Retirement age varies between more developed and less developed countries. In more developed countries, 13 per cent of men aged 65 or more are economically active whereas 39 per cent are in the labour force of less developed regions. Older people remain economically active longer in poorer countries because of the limited coverage of pension programmes and the small incomes they provide.
In Ireland at present there are six people of working age for every person on a pension. Within the next 35 years that ratio will change to less than two people of working age to support a person on a pension. These figures were recently quoted by the Minister for Social and Family Affairs, Martin Cullen, when the Government published a Green Paper on future provisions for pensions. It is looking more likely that the current retirement age of 65 will go, and future Irish workers may have to work well into their 70s to support the increasing number of the population relying on State pensions.
Health typically disimproves with age causing a greater demand for long-term care as the numbers of elderly people increases. The ratio of the number of people aged 85 and older to those aged 50 to 64 is an indication of the level of support families may be able to provide for their oldest members. In 1950 there were fewer than two people aged over 85 for every 100 people aged 50 to 64. The ratio today is more than four per 100, and is projected to rise to 12 per hundred by 2050. In other words, people well past middle age will then be three times more likely than they are today to be responsible for the care of elderly relatives. The ageing process is predicted to accelerate soon, particularly in developing countries. It is therefore urgent that governments take steps to face the challenges that will arise.