Population projections indicate our children will inherit big trouble
THE HEADLINES READ: "From 2015, deaths projected to outnumber births in the EU" and "Almost three times as many people aged 80 or more in 2060". And the source - a right wing think tank funded by Opus Dei? No, this was a news release detailing official EU statistical projections from the Eurostat Press Office to announce the publication of Eurostat, Statistics in Focus, 72/2008 Ageing Characterises the Demographic Perspectives of European Societies(which can be downloaded from Eurostat website). If the population projections in this report for the period 2008-2060 materialise, our children will inherit big trouble.
Eurostat predicts that the population of the 27 EU countries will increase from its present 495 million to 521 million in 2035 and then decline to 506 million in 2060. Annual births will fall over the period 2008-2060 and annual deaths will rise. Deaths will outnumber births from 2015 onwards and natural population growth will cease. From 2015 the only population growth factor would be positive net migration, but from 2035 onwards positive migration would no longer counter negative natural change.
The EU population will continue to grow older. The share of the population aged 65 and over will rise from 17.1 per cent in 2008 to 30 per cent in 2060; those aged 80 and over will rise from 4.4 per cent in 2008 to 12.1 per cent in 2060. The old-age dependency ratio is the population aged 65 and over divided by the working-age population. This is projected to rise from 25 per cent in 2008 to 53 per cent in 2060 - ie only two people of working age for every 65-year-old-plus in 2060 compared with four people to one over-65 today.
For human population numbers to remain constant with time the average woman should have 2.1 children. At the moment in Europe this birth rate figure is 1.3 and it is projected that by 2030 Europe will have a worker shortfall of 20 million workers. On the world stage, 44 per cent of the world population is located in 59 states, each with less than replacement birth rates.
The Eurostat report predicts that by 2060 the UK will have the largest population (76.68 million) in the EU. Presently the UK has a fertility rate of 1.91 children per woman and an immigration policy with few restrictions. The Office for National Statistics predicts a UK population of 70 million by 2031 but says that at least 70 per cent of the rise will be directly attributable to immigration. On the other hand, Germany, with the biggest population in EU at more than 82 million, will see its population shrink by 14 per cent.
These statistics have obvious huge negative economic and other implications and several countries have introduced schemes to encourage their populations to have more children. For example, Sweden offers a generous child benefit and maternity leave programme but it produced only a tiny increase in birth rates (from 1.5 children per woman in 1999 to 1.7 in 2004). Russia has a low birth rate of 1.17 children per woman and some projections predict it will lose one third of its population by 2030. The Russian government offers parents about €7,100 for every child born after the first child.
Many factors contribute to the low modern fertility rates - widespread female participation in full-time careers, increasing preoccupation with personal development and gratification, pressure on the traditional family model.Fertility rates worldwide have fallen more than 50 per cent in less than 40 years. The average woman in 1970 had six children in her lifetime, but today the global average is 2.9. There are six million fewer children under six in the world today than in 1990. "As you sow, so shall you reap", and at present we are sowing too few children.
• William Reville is associate professor of biochemistry and public awareness of science officer at UCC - http://understandingscience.ucc.ie
