SDLP hopes of keeping Hume's seat depend on high turnout

Mark Durkan is called to the microphone "for a few words" in the bar of Derry's City Hotel, one of the many new structures along…

Mark Durkan is called to the microphone "for a few words" in the bar of Derry's City Hotel, one of the many new structures along the quays of the river which lends its name to this constituency.

It's the jazz festival, and there's a session on here. Van Morrison has just finished at another venue, and the gossip is that it was some show.

For Durkan this is neither the time nor place for a political speech, but he can hardly refuse.

Cutting a slightly self-conscious figure he opts for brevity and a quick joke which gets warm appreciation. He's relaxed - surprisingly so given the pressures he faces before May 5th.

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Rather like David Trimble in Upper Bann, Durkan as party leader cannot afford to fail. Nor can he be seen to be the man who lost the seat John Hume won handsomely for 22 years or the man who consigned his former leader's legacy to history.

Mitchel McLaughlin knows the stakes on his main rival and says he feels for him on a personal level.

The Sinn Féiner, like the new SDLP leader, had just taken part in a public forum on economic policy organised by the Federation of Small Business. Five of the six candidates turned up and talked with some passion about their city's needs.

Throughout 90 minutes of debate there is not one mention of the Belfast Agreement. There is no clash between unionist and nationalist, and a total outsider would have been unable to distinguish between the Protestantism of DUP man Willie Hay and Ulster Unionist Earl Storey and the rest of the panel.

Derry is different like that. These men seem to know and like each other. There is banter and humour rather than bitterness.

They are Derry men first. It is arguable if any other constituency could have produced candidates from each of the main parties to debate bread-and-butter economics at a public meeting in the teeth of what could well be a watershed election here.

Eamonn McCann, trade unionist and journalist, the Socialist Environmental Alliance candidate, steals the show somewhat with his unique style, wit and passion.

First-past-the-post elections are tough on small parties and independents, and he knows he will be hard pressed to retain the 2,300 votes he and his colleagues got in the Assembly election.

He campaigns vociferously against water charges, goading the main parties to back his call for a policy of non-payment. It's like history repeating itself, a 21st-century equivalent of the rent-and-rates strike of the early civil rights protest in this city nearly 40 years ago.

He views this election as a battle between Sinn Féin and the SDLP "to see who is the champion of nationalism".

Mitchel McLaughlin diverges more from the McCann terminology than from his thesis.

Talking privately as he canvasses young parents on school runs the next morning, he speaks warmly of the John Hume "colossus".

But he does so in the past tense and signals a belief that his party will overtake the SDLP in the same way that party dismissed Eddie McAteer's old Nationalist Party.

He uses the term "second wave" a lot.

"John Hume's retirement means that there is change. My view is that that momentum for change is with Sinn Féin and not just in Foyle.

"We've turned a 2:1 situation into just a small deficit. It's still a hill to climb because Hume's legacy is huge."

While Hume built his reputation on equality, on rights and on the need for change, he believes Sinn Féin is now best placed to deliver on such ideals.

Campaigning against the backdrop of Gerry Adams's call on the IRA to adopt a purely democratic stance, Mr McLaughlin believes voters on the doorsteps are aware of "the right thing to do".

If he's right then Mark Durkan could face a bigger danger than his party believes. The SDLP holds this parliamentary seat with a majority of 11,550.

The Assembly election saw this cut to 1,500 courtesy of 10,000 SDLP voters staying at home.

"It's important for them to turn out on May 5th, not just for the future of the SDLP but for the future of the Agreement and political prospects here," he warns.

"A move to two-party politics, which Peter Robinson has wanted for some time, is all about undermining both the premise of the agreement and about sharing power in a multiparty democracy."

The prospect of a Sinn Féin-DUP domination of the North's politics - referred to by Séamus Mallon as Balkanisation - is " a sterile outlook" which will motivate people to vote, Durkan is convinced.

"It's now 18 years since the first Hume-Adams talks, nearly 12 years since the first IRA ceasefire, nine years since the Mitchell Principles, seven years since Good Friday and it's only now in the face of an election that Gerry Adams is calling on the IRA to embrace peaceful and democratic means."

A big SDLP vote will underpin the accord, guarantee inclusion at Stormont, and will "hold Sinn Féin to their promise".

Turnout will likely hold the key to victory. If the turnout percentage rises above figures in the low 60s, then SDLP confidence will rise. If not, then a new era will be signalled.