THE GARDA, PSNI and MI5 have thwarted many dissident operations in the past two years, according to senior security sources.
Notwithstanding the fully primed 250kg bomb the British army defused close to the Border on the Fathom Line road near Newry on Friday, the British and Irish security services believe they are limiting the operations of the dissidents.
“There is no sense of things getting worse,” one well-placed security source told The Irish Times yesterday. “There are still some very dangerous individuals about, and in their terms they will continue to have successes from time to time – some things will just get through at some point – but there is no sense of things getting worse,” he added.
He said several operations had been thwarted by the security services on both sides of the Border but to prevent “sensitive information” being disclosed to the dissidents these security successes were not made public.
PSNI Assistant Chief Constable Alastair Finlay said yesterday that the fully primed bomb discovered in an abandoned van on Thursday was a “sophisticated” device that could have caused major loss of life had it exploded, and was one of the biggest bombs seen for a long time.
PSNI detectives and forensic personnel are now examining the device to try to determine if the dissidents are developing new bomb-making expertise and to try to establish which of the dissident groupings was responsible for its construction. Police also hope that examination of the bomb will yield clues to who was responsible for putting the device together.
It is not yet clear who or what was the intended target. It could have been intended for a passing police patrol or, perhaps more likely, the plan was to attack commercial or public property or a town centre. It is just over two years since a 120kg dissident bomb damaged Newry courthouse and surrounding buildings. In addition to the bomb a suspected dissident under-car bomb was also discovered in north Belfast at the weekend, and a cache of weapons was also found in the city. Some initial reports suggested the target of the under-car device was a PSNI officer, but security sources now believe it was related to drugs activity.
The PSNI and MI5 work on a grading system in establishing the seriousness of dissident attacks. Dissident operations involving pipe and petrol bombs or so-called punishment attacks are regarded as “low technology” actions while actions involving bombs such as discovered near Newry, or mortar, high calibre under-car bomb or gun attacks are graded in the “high technology” category.
The senior security source said the number of “high-technology” incidents had decreased. There were 40 such incidents in 2010, 26 last year and so far this year eight attacks, he said.
But, he explained, dissidents were still striving to mount serious operations.
“There has been a lot of background activity so it is not at all surprising that this should happen,” he said in reference to the discovery of the 250kg bomb.
“They have been active throughout the last year, but they have not really been very successful in their terms because of the activity of the PSNI, MI5 and the Garda,” he added.
The source added that there was considerable distrust among groups such as the estimated three different factions of the Continuity IRA, the Real IRA, Óglaigh na hÉireann and “unaffiliated” independent dissident operators.
Concern about infiltration by agents and informants has also made the groups wary about co-operating on operations, he added. “They have concerns about security and tend to fall out from time to time. There is certainly no sign of a pan-dissident republican organisation emerging,” he said.
