ITALY:The fate of the centre-left coalition government led by Italian prime minister Romano Prodi hangs in the balance this afternoon when it faces a confidence vote in the Senate, writes Paddy Agnewin Rome
At the end of another convulsive day, marked by exhaustive head counts, Mr Prodi last night seemed determined to take his chances in the upper house and contest a vote many feel he will lose, thus perhaps prompting an early general election.
From the moment this crisis was started last Monday night by the withdrawal from the coalition of the small ex-Christian Democrat party, UDEUR, Mr Prodi declared his intention to test his coalition's strength with a vote of confidence in both houses. The first took place in the lower house yesterday and, as expected, saw Mr Prodi's government comfortably winning - by 326 votes to 275.
However, it will be a very different story in the senate today. Right from his general election victory in April 2006, Mr Prodi has relied on a wafer-thin, one- or two-vote majority in the senate, often forcing measures through thanks only to the votes of the non-aligned life senators.
In the wake of a series of developments yesterday, many observers are convinced Mr Prodi has no realistic chance of surviving today's vote. The prime minister had already lost three votes with the withdrawal of the UDEUR - which has announced it will vote with the opposition.
Despite that announcement, the UDEUR last night angrily denied speculation from opposition leader Silvio Berlusconi that it would shortly be joining his centre-right coalition.
Three other centre-left senators - former prime minister Lamberto Dini, Domenico Fisichella and Franco Turigliato - all confirmed yesterday they would vote against the government.
Mr Prodi's survival chances suffered another blow with the news Italo-Argentine senator Luigi Pallaro, a centre-left supporter, will be unable to attend parliament.
In real terms, Mr Prodi would seem to have lost at least seven (if not more) votes to the opposition. So difficult is Mr Prodi's position that state president Giorgio Napolitano, during a private meeting yesterday morning, urged him to consider resignation prior to today's vote, thus avoiding the embarrassment of a parliamentary defeat.
Along with politicians from both sides of the house, Mr Napolitano may well favour the formation of a "technical" or national government of unity.
Such a government would have a short-term mandate, overseeing state business until such time as a new electoral law could be introduced, prior to the holding of a general election.
Many observers feel the current electoral legislation, hurriedly introduced by the centre-right government of Silvio Berlusconi prior to the 2006 general election, is deeply flawed and partly responsible for the chronic instability of Mr Prodi's litigious, nine-party coalition.
It may well be that Mr Napolitano will want to call on Mr Prodi to head such a "technical" government, something that might more easily be done without losing today's vote in what is sure to be a bitter and divisive climate.
One politician who clearly does want to go to an early and immediate general election is Mr Berlusconi, who yesterday predicted that Mr Prodi would lose today's vote.
As for the allegedly much-needed electoral reform, Mr Berlusconi suggested that "in the space of a week", an outgoing Prodi government could effectively reform the existing legislation with a view to holding elections.
Mr Berlusconi's ally and federalist Northern League leader Umberto Bossi struck a typically forthright and colourful tone when calling on Mr Prodi to resign. "He falls, he falls - he [ Prodi] might have survived in the lower house but he will fall in the senate. At the point we go to an election, otherwise there will be a revolution. We'll find the arms for it," saidMr Bossi.