ANALYSIS: But optimists say the upside this time, is that the impetus has come from Eta's political supporters, writes PADDY WOODWORTH
THE CEASEFIRE announcement by the Basque militant group Eta yesterday has been very carefully choreographed, in a process that has advanced by inches rather than yards over the last two years.
The announcement evokes an understandable sense of déjà vu, since this is the third ceasefire called by the group in 12 years, each one couched in ambiguous language that flirts with, but falls short of, a firm commitment to a permanent renunciation of violent methods in pursuit of Basque independence.
This time around, Eta does not even use the phrases “truce” or “ceasefire”, but simple says that it decided, several months ago, “not to carry out offensive armed actions”. It must be assumed, then, that the group reserves the right to carry out whatever it deems to be “defensive” armed actions, and there is no reference to a time frame.
The statement claims that it is Eta’s 51-year campaign that has “kept the Basque people alive”. It calls on Basques to build democratic institutions that will lead to independence.
But whether Eta would return to violence if such an enterprise fails – as it very likely will, at least in the short term – remains an enigma.
However, the current ceasefire and its political context are very different from its predecessors, for reasons that give grounds for both optimism and pessimism as to how it will play out.
The upside is that the impetus for this ceasefire has come from Eta’s political supporters. Historically, the military tail has always wagged the political dog in the Basque pro-independence movement, but a series of circumstances have finally persuaded most Basque radical nationalists that Eta is a crippling debit, not an asset.
Eta supporters used to be organised in Batasuna, a radical party banned in 2001. Several surrogate parties have since been banned, and exclusion from Basque institutions has frustrated the radicals, without provoking increased sympathy support from a weary electorate.
Meanwhile, Eta has slid from the ropes to the floor as leader after leader has been arrested, arms seized, and active service units dismantled.
The model of Catalonia, where a mix of astute political manoeuvres and street activism has put independence from Spain firmly on the agenda this year without a shot being fired, has also provoked fresh thinking in the Basque Country. Against the international background of rising Islamist terrorism and IRA disarmament, Eta began to seem an anachronism to many of its former members.
For two years, former Batasuna leaders have edged closer and closer, in a series of statements, to calling on Eta to hang up its guns. This summer, Rufi Etxeberria, once regarded as a hardliner, said that if Eta was not willing to endorse an exclusively peaceful strategy then the political movement would simply move on without it.
These developments have been facilitated by international figures, especially the South African lawyer Brian Currin, a key figure in the discussions that ended apartheid.
This produced a “Brussels Declaration” earlier this year, signed by luminaries like Mary Robinson and Nelson Mandela, calling both for a definitive Eta ceasefire and new initiatives from the Spanish government in response. Sinn Féin leaders have also discreetly encouraged moves towards peace.
All these elements should mean that this ceasefire is more likely to stick than its predecessors, when Eta dictated the political agenda and undermined its negotiators with provocative actions.
There is a double downside, however. Firstly, the centre-left government of José Luís Rodriguez Zapatero in Madrid is unlikely to make any concessions in response to the ceasefire, at least in the short term.
The prime minister got his fingers badly burned when he launched a peace process with Eta in 2005. The opposition Partido Popular unleashed a massive street movement against any discussions whatsoever with the group, even on prisoner release.
Spanish nationalism is now proving to be as big a force in this equation as Basque nationalism. Many Spaniards, including many Basques, are deeply hostile to any resolution of the conflict that would weaken Spanish identity in the region, or show any leniency to Basque militants convicted of violent crimes. The relatives of Eta victims are a very vocal voice in Spanish politics, well organised – and arguably manipulated – by the conservatives.
Without some peace dividend, however, it is hard to see how the ceasefire can hold – especially as well-informed sources suggest that a large majority of younger Eta members are still deeply hostile to ending violence under these circumstances.
In this context, one can’t discount a split in Eta, with ultra-radicals claiming the “legacy” of the organisation, which still has charismatic appeal to many young Basques. They would hardly be able to mount an effective campaign, but any further attacks after this ceasefire would set back a resolution of this conflict for years to come.