SERBIA:Serbs go to the polls tomorrow, knowing their new government could lead rapid progress towards joining the European Union or cause a slide into deeper poverty and isolation.
Surveys suggest the ultra-nationalist Radical Party will take the biggest share of the votes, backed by the many Serbs who have felt no benefit from the free market, see the West as a bully, and resent its imminent decision to grant independence to Kosovo.
They are likely to be chased home by the Democratic Party of President Boris Tadic, who wants Serbia to move quickly towards the EU and Nato by catching war crimes suspect Ratko Mladic and being pragmatic about Kosovo's future.
Who ultimately runs Serbia after tomorrow will depend largely on the current prime minister, Vojislav Kostunica, whose party lies third in the polls and, unlike the Democrats, has not ruled out forming a coalition with the Radicals loathed by Brussels.
Mr Kostunica has trodden a fine line between liberalism and nationalism during his three years in office, at the head of a minority government backed by the Socialists formerly led by the late Slobodan Milosevic.
Critics at home and abroad say he is by instinct a nationalist with dubious links to the old Milosevic-era elite, who has blocked efforts to catch Mladic and is determined to hold on to Kosovo and to keep power, regardless of who helps him do it.
At their rallies, Mr Kostunica and his team have wooed Radical and Socialist voters with patriotic slogans, flags and music, and he was a star guest earlier this month at a concert by Ceca - the popstar widow of Arkan, a Serb warlord and nationalist icon.
With the Radicals and Democratic Party both likely to take between 25-30 percent, Mr Kostunica could become a very unpredictable kingmaker.
"The Democratic bloc will win the vote," said Goran Svilanovic, a former Serbian foreign minister, referring to the likely combined showing of the parties of Mr Tadic, Mr Kostunica and several smaller liberal groups.
"The election outcome is not a matter of concern for me," he said, "it is more the creation of the government and Kostunica's position".
Top EU and US officials have repeatedly stated their desire for "democratic" parties to prevail in Serbia tomorrow, sending a clear signal to voters and - if he considers forging a post-election alliance with the Radicals - to Mr Kostunica as well.
"I think the Radical Party will come first by 5-6 percent," said Dragan Popovic, executive director of the Youth Initiative for Human Rights in Belgrade.
"The party is not supported only by nationalists, but by those who are very poor and without hope - the many losers in the transition process," he said.
With the West having made clear its rejection of the Radicals however, most analysts believe the so-called Democratic bloc will try to forge a workable coalition.
"I think the Radicals will be kept out of government," said Mr Popovic.
Disillusioned by domestic politics, and sick of being lectured by foreigners, Serbs want to move towards a prosperous future while regaining the national pride that they believe has been lost during 16 years of war, Nato bombing, and increasing isolation.
The Democratic Party, and some other liberals, say the only way forward is West, even if it means losing Kosovo and handing over Mladic.
The Radicals see better prospects in closer ties with the likes of Russia, India, China and Middle Eastern states, and vow never to relinquish Kosovo or a warlord whom many Serbs regard as a hero.
Aware of the Radicals' strength, EU enlargement commissioner Olli Rehn assured Serbia recently that "a new reform-oriented and pro-European government in Belgrade will make rapid progress" towards membership.
Remembering the relative prosperity and freedom they enjoyed as Yugoslavs, it was galling to Serbs this month to see flourishing Slovenia become the first new EU member to adopt the euro, and Romanians and Bulgarians join the bloc ahead of them.
"We were so much better off than them 20 years ago, and now it's so different," said Biljana Stankovic, an office manager spending her lunch hour window shopping in central Belgrade.
"So much time and opportunity has been lost in Serbia."
Watching fireworks erupt at the end of a campaign rally by the liberal G17 Plus party, student Borislav Kalic said the choice facing Serbia's 10 million people was clear.
"The Radicals, and the Socialists, they want to take us backwards," he said. "We have to go forwards, even if we don't like it sometimes and the reforms we have to make will be tough. It's time for Serbia to move on, and for us to be proud of ourselves again."
Reuters adds: A decision on the fate of Kosovo must bring "maximum" satisfaction to the citizens of the province without stirring turbulence in Serbia, German Chancellor Angela Merkel told Reuters yesterday.
UN Kosovo envoy Martti Ahtisaari is due to present proposals on the future of the Serbian province following tomorrow's election.