Serious issues line up as the silly season starts

August. At last you may say

August. At last you may say. Certainly Drapier does, hoping finally for a bit of peace and quiet, c chance to catch up, reflect, recollect and generally prepare himself for the autumn session.

But in practice, August has a habit of living up to its reputation as a wicked month when untoward things happen which catch us all by surprise. Witness yesterday's bombshell when Brian Cowen published the Rainbow government's legal strategy in the ridget McCole case. And more may be on the way.

If Mr Justice McCcracken publishes his report before the end of the month it will be the prelude to the story which will dominate and absorb us all well into next year. The only question following the report's publication will be the scope, nature and terms of reference of the next tribunal, not whether there will be one.

Drapier cannot evaluate the consequences for the next tribunal of Mr John Furze's death this week. In Drapier's view, the financial expertise shown by the McCracken team will at least ensure that that whatever information can be got will be got without fear or favour.

READ MORE

And, as Drapier has noted, once established, tribunals take on a life of their own and ask questions nobody expected or intended.

Just ask the person who leaked the original material on Michael Lowry and you can be sure it was never his intention to target C.J. Haughey. You can bet on it, but then as a man might say: "That's tribunals for you."

Tribunals aside, there is plenty to be going on with, Micheal Martin's decision to allow the universities increase "free fees" by another £100 per annum has some long-term significance. Drapier listened with interest to UCC President Michael Mortell justify the increase, and he had a good case to make, but Drapier could not help thinking about the symbolic significance of the whole thing.

To the UCC President the £250 per annum being charged was equivalent of a pint of stout every three days, which would be modest enough consumption for many undergraduates. But Drapier's mind could not help going back to the abolition of car tax in 1977. Jubilation all round. Then a £5 annual charge appeared. Then £15 per annum and before we knew where we were we had a full car tax back again.

It made the public sceptical and Drapier feels the reaction to the new charges will be somewhat similar. Not that Drapier disputes the charge, indeed he feels that universal free fees have little to justify them. An Niamh Bhreathnach got little thanks from Dun Laoghaire electorate which has one of the largest third level populations in the country. But without getting into arguments, Drapier feels this is an issue that could run and run.

Nor will Charlie McCreevy's stentorian warnings about inflation and the danger of tax cuts in the autumn budget cut too much ice. Rightly or wrongly, the voters were told that a Fianna Fail/PD government would mean significant tax cuts and that there would be no delay in their implementation.

The last few days of the election campaign in particular were dominated by these promises and it was at this time we began to hear the phrase "pay-back-time". Not a phrase that Drapier liked at the time and one which may come to have less than happy connotations in the fullness of time.

??Charlie McCreevy may just be doing what Ministers for Finance always do - pouring cold water on all expectations, preparing us for bad news and then surprising us all with his generosity on the day. Maybe. But Charlie McCreevy has the habit of telling it as it is.

And then of course there is the presidency. Avril Doyle certainly threw a spanner in fine Gael's emerging strategy with her last minute entry, though in Drapier's view she may have done her party a real favour by opening up a debate on the issue within the party itself. From what Drapier heard, the rush decision to endorse Mary Banotti could have left John Bruton with a less than united party, whereas an open contest should remove this particular problem.

The Fianna Fail choice becomes more and more intriguing. Thursday's inspired leak about Ray McSharry is significant. From what Drapier could pick up in the wind and rain of Galway races it is clear the party heavies see him as their best available choice, and while Ray McSharry might want the job like a hole in the head pressure is mounting to get him into the frame.

As Drapier said last week, Albert Reynolds will fight hard for the nomination (and he used Galway races like a pro he is) and will only be stopped if a serious alternative is available. That alternative may be Maire Geoghegan-Quinn, it might be Michael O'Kennedy but from the party manager's perspective the ideal choice would be McSharry.

Fine Gael's decision to defer its choice will make things that little bit more difficult for Fianna Fail since knowing your opponent is always a help. But one way or another Drapier will be surprised if August does not see a determined and renewed series of efforts to find an agreed "national" candidate acceptable to all parties.

The truth is the prospect of a presidential election evokes little enthusiasm in any party. In the absence of any clear and obvious favourite, all parties stand to lose financially, in terms of morale and effort, and in terms of party unity. There is no Mary Robinson around this time nor, in Drapier's view, is there a public mood for one. So is an agreed candidate can be found then at least the decks are clear for other business.

The news of Prionsias De Rossa's libel victory caused much reaction in here. Predictably, his supporters from all the Rainbow parties were thrilled with the result; his opponents had to concede a grudging admiration especially for his stubbornness and stamina.

One thing Drapier did not encounter from friend or foe of De Rossa was any sympathy for the newspaper in question or any great enthusiasm to change the libel laws. In fact, the Dunphy case has probably put any change in these laws back very significantly.

The strange thing from the politicians' point of view is that people whose business is communication have had such little success in getting their case for change in the libel laws across, not just to politicians but more importantly to the general public.

Drapier will simply say that if there is a case for change in the libel laws it has yet to be made.