Several constituencies in Dublin and the surrounding commuter belt are likely to be changed significantly after the report of the Constituency Commission is published tomorrow, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent.
Dublin West and Mid-West, Meath, Kildare North and Westmeath are believed to be among the constituencies that will be altered to reflect the major population growth in the capital's western suburbs and surrounding counties.
Sitting and aspiring TDs are anxiously awaiting tomorrow's publication of the report of the Constituency Commission whose findings are invariably passed into law.
The commission will recommend a revision of Dáil constituency boundaries and the number of seats per constituency to take into account population changes revealed in the most recent census report of 2002. The report will pay particular attention to the census findings that Dublin West, Dublin Mid-West, Kildare and Meath have too few TDs, and that Cork city and county and parts of Dublin's northside have too many.
While the independent commission has kept its conclusions secret, it is expected in political circles that Dublin West and Dublin Mid-West, which are severely under-represented with three seats each, may get proportionally increased representation. This could be done through simply increasing the number of TDs per constituency, or moving the constituency boundaries to reduce the population in each. There is also strong speculation that the five-seat Meath constituency, whose population warrants an extra seat, may be split, with part of it attached to neighbouring Co Westmeath.
The adjacent three-seat North Kildare constituency also merits an extra seat, so a significant redrawing of the boundaries between west Dublin, Kildare, Meath and Westmeath cannot be ruled out.
The commission is to leave the number of Dáil seats unchanged at 166, meaning that some constituencies will either lose seats, or be increased in size. Cork city and county is seen as vulnerable to losing a seat or more, while it is not known whether Dublin North-West and North-Central, both of which have more seats per head of population than the national average, will be affected.
The census showed that while there is an average population of 23,598 per TD, there are substantial variations. The most substantially under-represented constituency in the State is Kildare North with one deputy for every 28,491 people. Dublin West has 27,425 people per TD, Dublin Mid-West has 27,245 and Meath has 26,811. Those over-represented include Dublin North-West, with just 20,792 people per deputy, Sligo-Leitrim, with 21,000, and Dublin North-Central, with 21,085.
The Constitution prescribes that the ratio between the number of TDs and the population should "so far as it is practicable, be the same throughout the country".