MIDDLE EAST: Television opinion polls last night predicted that members of the ruling Likud party had resoundingly rejected Israeli Prime Minister Mr Ariel Sharon's plan for a unilateral withdrawal from Gaza, where Palestinians shot a pregnant settler and four of her children.
The woman, who lived in one of the 21 Gaza settlements scheduled for removal under Mr Sharon's plan, was reportedly on her way to campaign inside Israel against a withdrawal. Hours after the Gaza attack, Israeli aircraft fired missiles at a car in the West Bank city of Nablus, killing four Palestinian militants.
The TV polls gave opponents of the plan an overwhelming 12-24 point lead in the referendum held yesterday in the ruling party. If those results are confirmed, it will be a crippling blow to Mr Sharon who has staked his prestige on the plan.
Aides to the Israeli leader had said before yesterday's referendum, however, that even if he lost he would continue to seek ways to promote his plan and that he had no intention of resigning.
Settler leaders, who headed the anti-withdrawal campaign, were ecstatic. "It looks like a watershed in Israeli politics. We never thought we would achieve such a gap," a settler spokesman said.
Justice Minister Mr Tommy Lapid, of the centrist Shinui party, which supports the Gaza plan, demanded the issue "be brought for discussion before the cabinet and parliament ... the Likud will not determine the fate of the nation".
Even though the referendum is not legally binding, a big defeat for Mr Sharon will leave him with few political options. If he tries to push the plan through the cabinet, he will find it difficult to muster a majority, with Likud ministers likely to argue that they have to adhere to the party vote.
A defeat for Mr Sharon is also embarrassing for President Bush, who enthusiastically backed the disengagement plan when the Israeli leader visited Washington last month. Mr Bush has paid a price for his support, which angered the Arab world.
Israel could pay a price too, in the form of growing international isolation, if the vote is perceived as an unwillingness to evacuate settlements.
Mr Sharon's plan also calls for the evacuation of four settlements in the northern West Bank, and the retaining of large settlement blocs there. Opinion polls indicate that his blueprint has strong backing among the public.
Both proponents and opponents of the "disengagement" plan, as it has been called, seized on the attack in Gaza to justify their positions. Settler leaders released a statement saying: "The terrorists who killed five Jews next to Gush Katif [settlement bloc\] want us to be kicked out of our homes."
Mr Sharon said the attack was an effort by Palestinian militants to undermine his plan: "The terrible murder today is their way of rejecting and complicating the plan."
The Islamic Jihad and an umbrella group called the Popular Resistance Committees claimed responsibility for the shooting, saying it was retaliation for Israel's assassination of Hamas founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and his successor, Dr Abdel Aziz Rantissi. Both were killed in Israeli helicopter strikes in recent weeks.
Palestinian leaders have been angered by the unilateral nature of Mr Sharon's plan, and believe his strategy is to sacrifice settlements in Gaza in a bid to strengthen Israel's hold on the West Bank. "It's a frustrating day for us to see these Likud members taking themselves seriously to determine our fate. They have no right to overrule signed agreements," said Palestinian Cabinet Minister Mr Saeb Erekat.
The dead in the Gaza attack, who were all buried yesterday, were: Ms Tali Hatuel (34), who was eight months pregnant, and her four children, aged two to 11. On the back of their station-wagon was a bumper sticker with the slogan settlers used in their campaign against Mr Sharon's plan: "Uprooting the settlements - a victory for terror." Troops rushed to the scene and killed the gunmen shortly after the attack.