Despite its socially uniform character, North Down is a politically volatile constituency, writes Dan Keenan, Northern News Editor
They don't like their stereotypes in North Down. "The have-yachts and have-nots" is a description of this coastal strip of the county bordering Belfast Lough which has endured. Reality, as is often the case, differs from the image.
No doubt, North Down is substantially middle-class, both in terms of income and outlook. It also has its problems and areas of relative deprivation and an unemployment rate higher than neighbouring Belfast.
That said, this constituency is markedly Protestant and unionist. Unlike the other 17 constituencies, there is no one area which fits the description Catholic and nationalist.
Should Down win another All-Ireland, it is difficult to imagine Sam Maguire being paraded through the neat streets of Bangor. Just 9 per cent of the population describe themselves as Catholic. Nearly one in four though describe themselves as having no particular faith.
Sceptics may refer to them as Protestant atheists.
Yet despite this apparently uniform character, North Down remains the most politically volatile constituency in Northern Ireland. It is a unique area and has unique politics.
So says Peter Weir, the DUP candidate who is seeking to wrest it from the grasp of the Ulster Unionist Lady Sylvia Hermon.
She won the seat in dramatic fashion in 2001 from Robert McCartney of the UK Unionist Party. He himself won it from James Kilfedder of the Ulster Popular Unionist Party in 1995.
The electorate here likes big personality unionists, having opted for both McCartney and Kilfedder at successive elections for 25 years, with neither of the big parties getting their noses in.
This time it's different. Lady Hermon won the seat last time helped by the withdrawal of Alliance. The DUP did not stand in 2001, its leadership apparently happy with Mr McCartney's anti-Agreement credentials. Now it's his turn to stand aside to facilitate the DUP and Mr Weir.
It's effectively a two-horse race between DUP and UUP, between pro- and anti-Agreement, with two candidates originally from the same branch of the UUP.
Mr Weir, always a Trimble and Agreement sceptic, joined the DUP in 2001. He won an Assembly seat for his new party in November 2003 and is seeking to tap support from the rising tide of unionism now hostile to the Agreement and tired of the peace process.
"It's partly because of the Provo failure to deliver," he says. "But others were never in love with the Agreement because of letting the prisoners out and getting rid of the RUC. The funny thing is, that those people who voted for the Agreement are now the most hostile to it."
Sylvia Hermon says Mr Weir can campaign on the Agreement if he likes. Voters on a door-to-door canvass in wind-swept Ballyholme greet her with genuine warmth. When prompted to voice an opinion on anything, they mention muggings and burglaries, water pollution and planning decisions, funding for schools and youth centres.
"I've had just three letters about IRA decommissioning since 2001," she says. "Last time, it was me versus Bob McCartney on the issue of the Agreement. It's now much more local."
Given the overwhelmingly unionist character of the place, there's a marked tendency towards low turnout - a concern for Lady Hermon, wife of a former RUC chief constable.
With no nationalist opposition to fire up the unionist voter, there has been a tendency to opt for the armchair rather than the polling station. "Will you vote?" she asks pointedly at every door.
The DUP candidate does the same around the doors of tranquil Helen's Bay. Mr Weir knows that even with Bob McCartney clearing the way and Alliance's David Alderdice running, it's Sylvia Hermon's seat to lose.
Alliance once won 7,500 votes here in 1997, but even if Alliance supporters who voted tactically for Hermon return to their fold this time, she should be returned to Westminster albeit with an uncomfortably small majority.
The DUP insists that things are changing in unionism, that a realignment is taking place in Helen's Bay as well as in the Belfast strongholds and the Border counties.
Voters here have little time for Tony Blair, argues Mr Weir, and have tired of the peace process and its protracted politicking. Therefore they kick at the UUP since that party is the first available target. He finds it no surprise at all that it's the DUP and Sinn Féin that are on the rise electorally. "It's the logical outcome of the Agreement," he argues.
The UUP will look to North Down in some confidence for signs of hope. The DUP too will look to this constituency in the knowledge that a strong first showing by their candidate could signal bigger gains to come.