SCOTTISH FIRST Minister Alex Salmond, who leads a minority administration, is to scrap plans to hold a referendum next year on independence, following his acceptance that he cannot get legislation necessary to hold it through the Holyrood parliament.
Holding an independence referendum has been Mr Salmond’s top ambition since he took up office in 2007 and he had intended published legislation by January this year, followed by the referendum in November.
However, he now accepts that the legislation, which is opposed by the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Labour in the Scottish parliament, will not be passed, and that such a major defeat for the SNP would hurt the party’s chances in next year’s Holyrood elections.
The final nail in the coffin of Mr Salmon’s hopes came after the Scottish Liberal Democrats in recent days declared independence “an issue of the past” and that they would no longer be “open-minded” towards the SNP’s plans to hold the referendum. The Liberals hold 16 of the 129 seats in the Scottish parliament.
Mr Salmond’s reputation has been hurt by his decision, following his approval of a multimillion-pound “national conversation” where Scots were asked to give their opinions on the options available for greater self-government.
There were doubts that the referendum was legal, since sovereignty is a matter for Westminster, not Holyrood, and difficulties were encountered between Mr Salmond’s administration and Holyrood’s speaker, who would have had the final call on whether it could be held.
Mr Salmond’s decision to put off referendum plans until after the election is understood to have been opposed at a meeting of SNP members of the Scottish parliament last week, leading him to seek support in a show of hands.
Last night, a spokesman for Mr Salmond said he intended to push for the referendum to be held quickly after the elections – if a mandate for such a course can be won in the campaign.
Public favour for independence has suffered in recent years as Scotland has suffered badly from the global financial crisis, in which major Scottish banks were among the biggest offenders, and the economic downturn.
“A newly re-elected government will be in a powerful position to secure passage of the Bill, having successfully appealed over the heads of the unionist parties to the people of Scotland,” said the SNP spokesman.
Under Mr Salmond’s now aborted plans, voters would have been asked two questions: firstly, if they favour greater powers for the Holyrood parliament and, secondly, if they agreed that Holyrood’s powers should be further extended to enable independence to be achieved.
Though public opinion has softened on independence, Mr Salmond believes that it will change once the impact of spending cuts ordered from London is felt.
The latest opinion polls puts Labour 10 points ahead of the SNP, on 39 per cent, which could, if reflected on polling day next May, see Labour gain eight seats and the SNP lose 12.