THE NEXT GOVERNMENT:FRANÇOIS HOLLANDE is expected to begin naming members of his government later this week, with the new cabinet likely to include a number of trusted allies and as many women as men.
Nearly all posts will go to the Socialist Party, with a few jobs for the Greens, Communists or other left-wing allies if they accept Mr Hollande’s programme.
The incoming president has given little away about his choice for prime minister, saying only that it must be a fellow socialist with experience, and someone he gets along well with.
That makes the leader of the socialist group in the National Assembly, Jean-Marc Ayrault (62), the favourite. A Germanophile who speaks fluent German and has good contacts in Berlin, Mr Ayrault would be well placed to help build a relationship between Mr Hollande and German chancellor Angela Merkel, notably as they seek a deal on France’s proposals for a growth compact.
Former finance minister Michel Sapin (60), one of Mr Hollande’s oldest friends, and Socialist Party leader Martine Aubry (61), who was number two in the last left-wing government, are also seen as possible contenders for the premiership.
Mr Sapin has been a close friend since he and Mr Hollande shared a dorm during military service in the 1970s and studied together at the elite École Nationale d’Admin-istration.
He was in charge of drafting Mr Hollande’s campaign manifesto and is seen as most likely to return to the finance ministry, a post he held under the late president François Mitterrand in 1992-93.
Ms Aubry, daughter of former European Commission president Jacques Delors, is experienced and popular among Socialist Party members, but has had a strained relationship with Mr Hollande over the years. If she does not become prime minister, she may opt to remain leader of the party.
The foreign ministry could go to former prime minister Laurent Fabius (65) or to Mr Hollande’s campaign manager, Pierre Moscovici (54), who was minister for European affairs in the previous Socialist-led government.
Mr Fabius broke with the official Socialist Party position on the European Union’s constitutional treaty in a 2005 referendum, helping ensure its defeat. But he has since softened his stance on Europe and was dispatched abroad during the campaign as Mr Hollande’s foreign envoy.
One of the socialists who has seen his stock rise during the campaign is Manuel Valls (49), who ran Mr Hollande’s communications operation.
Representing the right wing of the Socialist Party, and with a strong record on crime, he is thought to covet the interior ministry.
Mr Hollande’s former partner, Ségolène Royal, who lost to Mr Sarkozy in the 2007 election, has hinted she expects to become president of the lower house of parliament if the party wins a majority in elections next month.
To fulfil his pledge of a gender-balanced government, Mr Hollande will need to draw on a younger generation of women who have played a prominent role in his campaign.
Among those tipped for cabinet roles are Auré Filipetti (38), a possible culture minister, and Najat Vallaud-Belkacem (34), who has been at his side as spokeswoman throughout the campaign. Mr Hollande also promised to create a ministry for women’s rights.
CHANGING OF THE GUARD WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
François Hollande is due formally to become French president on Wednesday, May 16th, although he could take office earlier if Nicolas Sarkozy agrees to vacate the Élysée Palace before then.
The new president faces a hectic schedule. Informal contacts have already taken place between the Hollande campaign and officials in Berlin, Brussels and Frankfurt, home of the European Central Bank. His first overseas visit will be to Berlin, and it is believed that could happen within the next 10 days.
Mr Hollande said he would immediately send a memorandum to all EU governments with proposals for a growth compact that he put at the heart of his election manifesto. His aides said they wanted to begin discussions early this week so as to have the broad outline of a deal in place as soon as possible.
On Friday, May 18th, the French president is due in Washington for a G8 summit, where he will meet President Barack Obama and other world leaders for the first time. He will then travel to Chicago for a Nato summit.
“Francois Hollande will be at work from Monday morning,” his communications chief Manuel Valls said last week.
“The country’s problems won’t disappear with the possible departure of Nicolas Sarkozy,” said Mr Hollande. “He won’t take away with him the public debt, unemployment, social problems. I can fully appreciate what is demanded of me.”
RUADHÁN MAC CORMAIC
