SPAIN:AS SPANIARDS cast their votes on Sunday to elect a new government, it is still far from clear who will be their next prime minister.
Opinion polls have shown the two leading parties running almost neck and neck with few votes separating them. The last one, published last weekend, gave the socialists a narrow lead of just four percentage points - one point less than than their lead in 2004.
If these predictions are fulfilled on Sunday, the socialist leader José-Luis Rodríguez Zapatero can expect between 165 and 169 seats in the 350-seat lower house of the Cortes, and the opposition Popular Party (PP) between 148 and 154.
The socialists have governed for the past four years with just 16 seats more than the PP. They came to power under the shadow of the Madrid train bombings of March 11th, 2004, which the PP tried to blame on Eta.
Their narrow majority made it impossible for them to pass legislation without the support of the smaller and regional parties, which gave these partners greater bargaining power.
It seems likely that Sunday's vote will give equally close results and the nationalist parties have campaigned strenuously to their loyal supporters.
Josep Antoni Duran y Lleida, leader of the moderate Catalan Convergence & Union Party, complained that the regions were only valuable when the other parties needed their support. He called for an end to the "hegemony" of the two larger parties.
"Why is it that it is alright when a moderate nationalist party allies with PSOE or the PP, but when we make our demands, we are threatening democracy?" he asked yesterday. Spain has a tradition of high participation in elections, but there have been worrying signs that enthusiasm for voting has waned in recent years.
The abstention rate was just over 25 per cent in 2004 - high for Spain - and the parties want to ensure it goes no higher this weekend. To this end, the speeches in the last hours of campaigning have been aimed at bringing out voters.
Mr Zapatero and his team warned their voters not to be too confident of victory or to be lulled into a false sense of security by opinion polls and televised debates. "Winning a debate doesn't mean you win the elections," he said.
His rival, the PP leader Mariano Rajoy, had a similar message for his voters.
Addressing a rally on Wednesday night in a traditionally socialist stronghold in Catalonia, he warned them: "Don't trust opinion polls. The only poll that counts is the one on March 9th when you cast your vote."
One sign that their warnings might be bearing fruit was the record number of people who have applied for a postal vote. Yesterday was the final day for them to file their papers and post offices reported huge crowds as tens of thousands of voters rushed to meet their deadline.
"I have to be in Barcelona at the weekend for business meetings and I am afraid I won't get back to Madrid in time to vote. So I have already filed my vote in the post office," said Gillian Ceballos.
The narrow majority held by the socialists over the past four years has resulted in bitter, confrontational scenes and has often made it impossible to conduct parliamentary business.
Most voters hope that Sunday's election will result in a strong government and that the next four years will be more tranquil.