GERMANY: A stroke of luck and a quirk of history may keep Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's Social Democrats (SPD) in power in the northern state of Schleswig-Holstein despite losing the state election at the weekend.
A change of government looked certain on Sunday night after the SPD lost over 4 per cent support to the opposition Christian Democrats (CDU). However, the CDU's euphoria was dampened when it emerged that, although it had won the election, it had not captured enough votes to form a coalition government.
All eyes are now on the SSD, a tiny party representing the Danish and Frisian ethnic minorities in the state which borders on Denmark. SSD party leaders had said they would be willing to support a minority SPD-Green coalition, but were keeping their options open yesterday.
"We are available for talks with everyone," said Ms Anke Spoorendonk, the SSD leader, on state television yesterday.
The state premier in Schleswig-Holstein, Ms Heide Simonis, rejected the notion of heading an SSD-supported government before the elections, saying it would be an expensive exercise in minority appeasement. However she had changed her tune yesterday, saying she hoped to get through negotiations with the SSD "very very quickly".
"With three women in charge - that can only go well," she said. "That my nerves held out says a lot about the tenaciousness of women."
The state election result was like a replay of the 2002 election night when initial exit polls showed a narrow victory for Mr Edmund Stoiber, the conservative challenger. He boarded a plane from Munich a victor but arrived in Berlin a loser after the votes started to add up for Chancellor Schröder.
Despite the CDU defeat in victory yesterday, party leaders said the result boded well for the party in this year's second crucial state election in North-Rhine Westphalia in May.
"When you gain 5 per cent, when you become the strongest party in a state for the first time in 17 years, then that is remarkable," said Mr Stoiber, the Bavarian state premier.
Green Party leaders expressed relief that its support remained stable, with no apparent negative effects from the so-called "visa affair" - allegations that the Green-controlled foreign ministry in Berlin ignored concerns that new visa rules opened German borders to human traffickers.