It's obvious Robinson and McGuinness must prove powersharing politics can work, writes GERRY MORIARTYNorthern Editor
IS IT game on after the DUP conference? Behind the arguments on policing and justice and the threat from Jim Allister’s Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV), has Peter Robinson realised that the greater good will be served by the First Minister and Deputy First Minister demonstrating they can work together?
Considering the impact of the 400lb suspected dissident bomb at the Policing Board HQ and the police gunfight with suspected dissidents in Fermanagh, it is clear that Robinson and Martin McGuinness need to work shoulder to shoulder to prove that powersharing politics is viable.
The DUP leader delivered two messages at the DUP annual conference at the La Mon Hotel outside Belfast on Saturday that Dublin, London, Sinn Féin and Jim Allister will have paid attention to: one, that he will battle the TUV on his and not Jim Allister’s ground; and, two, that truly he wants to take the leap on policing and justice.
But when? In recent months Robinson has been caught in a dilemma. If he pressed ahead with policing and justice, Allister would hammer him for selling out to Sinn Féin demands, even though unionists want this devolution too. If he sought to delay movement until after Westminster elections scheduled for next June, Gerry Adams was likely to pull Sinn Féin out of the Executive and Assembly, thus triggering premature Assembly elections.
With the TUV in the fray in Assembly elections the unionist vote would be fragmented, which might mean Sinn Féin being elevated to top party spot, with McGuinness as First Minister.
In the Westminster elections there is a real possibility that the DUP could lose one or more of its nine seats, again largely because of that unionist fragmentation. The crucible in these elections will be North Antrim, where Jim Allister seems certain to face one of the Ian Paisleys, father or son.
Losing North Antrim would call into question Robinson’s own leadership and his job as First Minister. There is a lot at stake: chiefly holding North Antrim, whether the Assembly and Executive have a future, Robinson’s leadership, the future strength of the DUP, whether Stormont politicians are capable of administering policing and justice, and whether Robinson and McGuinness can demonstrate that the powersharing experiment can work. All of this, in a sense, is in Robinson’s hands.
He could be forgiven for feeling he’s been caught on a dark night blinded by oncoming full-beam car lights. Which may explain why there appeared to be some recent uncharacteristic dithering on his part; why he was prepared to tolerate apparent insubordination from Jeffrey Donaldson over the future of the full-time police reserve; why he didn’t seem to have the confidence to face down some of the “rejectionists” or “12 Apostles” within the DUP who just aren’t on collective loyalty message. He is leader after all.
But on Saturday and, indeed, in the days before the conference, there was clarity and a coherent sense of direction from Robinson.
Bring on North Antrim and the other challenges, what I’m doing is morally and politically right – that seemed to be the message.
He reiterated what he has been saying since last Thursday – that Ian Paisley’s decision in 2007 to sign off on a powersharing deal with Gerry Adams was correct. He also made clear he would take the fight to Jim Allister to cement that point. Perhaps he was mindful of what the Rev Ian Paisley said to RTÉ’s Tommie Gorman in Sligo last week: “It would be a tragedy above all tragedies if what we have gained was brutally thrown away in an act of folly. I don’t think that will happen, but we all have to fight for our peace. And it is very difficult.”
The TUV wants powersharing without Sinn Féin. Robinson offered an incontrovertible truth that has not been said often enough by unionists – that this is impossible. “In their demented state they apparently seriously suggest that we may yet have a government which denies the fact and existence of more than 40 per cent of our population,” he said on Saturday.
Those who thought a return to direct rule represented a better way forward – the TUV’s second option – were “cave dwellers”. Unionists had to think rationally.
Robinson, if he has a real sense of a Northern Ireland that might at some stage work at a political level, may also have been considering Paisley’s hopes in Sligo that his relationship with McGuinness would “steady”. This is crucial, too. The dissidents will continue doing what they are doing regardless, but if it is clear that Robinson and McGuinness can’t work together, more republicans will be drawn to them in the face of failed politics.
What was lacking on Saturday was a commitment to move on policing before or shortly after Christmas, which McGuinness and Sinn Féin insist they need if they are to manage their constituency, just as Robinson must manage his. That was not on the cards on Saturday because such tricky dramatic initiatives do not happen at annual conferences.
Yet Robinson was explicit that devolution of policing is in unionism’s interest, and that hitting the handbrake would be counter-productive. Equally, he warned the DUP would not walk away from the Assembly, and that Sinn Féin would carry the can for any Stormont meltdown.
One of two things was happening at the La Mon Hotel. Robinson was cynically sounding reasonable, so that when the breakdown happens Sinn Féin might be – “might be” being key – forced to carry more blame than the DUP. Useless blame game politics, in other words, and dangerous politics in light of the threat from the dissidents.
Otherwise he was preparing his party, and the community, for a relatively speedy movement on policing. On Saturday it sounded like the latter. We will know soon whether there is game on.
