SWITZERLAND: Julian Borgerlooks ahead to tomorrow's crucial meeting of international diplomats in Geneva
WHAT WILL happen at tomorrow's meeting? EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana will head a delegation of diplomats from six countries to meet Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, in Geneva. Jalili is supposed to present Iran's final response to an offer of international economic and technical help, including assistance in building a civilian nuclear industry, in return for suspending Iranian enrichment of uranium.
The talks have been going on for years. What is different about tomorrow? Iran has been under pressure to give up uranium enrichment since its secret programme was exposed in 2002. Three UN sanctions resolutions have been imposed to no avail. But tomorrow will nevertheless mark an important moment.
The US is breaking a three-decade policy of isolation by sending a senior official, William Burns, to the talks to sit shoulder-to-shoulder with his counterparts from Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China, as the Bush administration embarks on a final push to force a deal.
What is expected to come out of it? Tehran has so far not given a straight answer to the bargain it is being offered, presumably because a debate is raging within the Iranian government. Tomorrow is supposed to be the absolute deadline for a yes or no.
One possibility is that Iran will try to buy time by agreeing to one part of the offer - a "freeze for freeze" formula in which it stops expanding its enrichment programme while the security council stops deepening its sanctions. That would provide a six-week breathing space during which preliminary talks could take place, establishing mutual confidence. A full suspension of uranium enrichment would require a further leap by Tehran, one it has so far shown no readiness to make.
What are the stakes? They are extremely high for the region. Israel and Iran have been making increasingly warlike noises and gestures. Israeli officials insist they will not stand by while Iran perfects the capacity to enrich uranium, and thus the potential for making a bomb.
Some say the point of no return will come in the next year or 18 months. A definitive no from the Iranians would also strengthen Dick Cheney, the US vice-president, and the hawks in the Bush administration, and perhaps resurrect the idea of US military intervention. At the least there would be a push for new UN sanctions in the autumn.
A positive result would open the way for intensive negotiations, strengthening moderates in the US and Iran. It would almost certainly pave the way for the opening of a US interests section in Tehran, with US diplomats returning to the Iranian capital for the first time in nearly 30 years. - (Guardian service)