Denis Stauntonexamines the candidates' foreign policies and the implications for the rest of the world of the American people's choice
IF THE rest of the world could vote in next week's US presidential election, Barack Obama would win by a landslide, partly on account of his personal qualities but substantially because he promises a clean break with the foreign policy of President George Bush.
The choice on foreign policy appears to be a stark one - between a Democrat who opposed the Iraq war and favours direct negotiations with America's adversaries and a Republican who backed the war, championed the surge of US troops in Iraq and has joked about bombing Iran.
As a former military officer, John McCain says he knows war and that he hates it but his record is that of a national security hawk who believes in the efficacy of military force in resolving international disputes. McCain is, however, a longstanding member of the international foreign policy establishment who regularly attends the annual security conference in Munich, the World Economic Forum in Davos and meetings of the Trilateral Commission and the Bilderberg Group.
He has opposed some US military adventures and challenged Bush on the torture of suspected terrorists but he has backed most recent US military campaigns, including both Iraq wars and Bill Clinton's intervention in Yugoslavia.
For his part, Obama insists that he does not oppose all wars - "just dumb ones" - but he places a stronger emphasis on diplomacy and multilateral action and he has been a strong supporter of more energetic nuclear disarmament.
James Goldgeier, senior fellow for transatlantic relations at the Council on Foreign Relations, believes that either candidate would initially receive a warm welcome in Europe.
"Both candidates on the campaign trail take positions on issues important to Europeans that are different from this current administration, particularly climate change and torture," he says.
"Certainly we should expect to see the closing of Guantánamo and also a new American approach to climate change, and these things will be very important to the Europeans and very pleasing to the Europeans, but I think what a lot of Europeans haven't focused on is the fact that, of course, the next president of the United States is still going to be dealing with two major wars: the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and particularly on Afghanistan where we've seen even today calls for additional troops needed to deal with that problem. The next president of the United States is going to be calling on Europeans to do more about Afghanistan."
Obama has promised to withdraw most US troops from Iraq within 16 months but he wants to step up the military operation in Afghanistan and has threatened to pursue al-Qaeda operatives into Pakistan without permission from the authorities in Islamabad.
This week, Obama joined a growing chorus in Washington, suggesting that the US should start negotiations with the Taliban in Afghanistan.
McCain says he will not bring US forces home from Iraq until they can return "in victory and with honour" and he has suggested that a modest American military presence could remain in Iraq for decades.
Unlike Obama, McCain says he would not hold direct talks with Iranian leaders without preconditions but he is open to allowing Iran to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes.
Both candidates have expressed almost unconditional support for Israel (Obama has sacked any advisers who expressed sympathy for the Palestinians) but both promise to make the search for a peace settlement an early priority.
Although Obama chairs a senate subcommittee on European affairs, neither candidate has expressed a significant interest in the European Union as an institution. The global economic crisis has, however, forced Washington to embrace the EU as a partner in reforming the financial system.
The US foreign policy establishment is broadly supportive of European political integration, although some in the Department of Homeland Security oppose it, favouring bilateral deals on issues such as data-sharing.
One of the earliest challenges facing the next president will come at a Nato summit in April, where the admission of Ukraine and Georgia will return to the agenda. Both candidates favour admitting both countries but France and Germany oppose such a move and Goldgeier believes that the next president will not wish to further antagonise Russia.
"The United States and Russia can't really afford to have the kind of deterioration in the relationship that we've seen over the past few years, and I think that no matter who the president of the United States is, there's going to be an effort to find some way to engage with the Russians on areas of common concern," he says.
"I mean arms control remains important to both countries and both candidates have talked about arms control. And of course solving the problem of a nuclear Iran is important to both countries and it can't be solved without co-operation between the United States and Russia. So I think no matter who the president of the United States is, that there's going to be an effort to try to find a way."