Contingency measures are being made for the evacuation of Westerners from the former Portuguese colony of East Timor, occupied by Indonesian forces in defiance of resolutions of the UN Security Council, since 1975. The formal inauguration this month by Indonesia and Australia of oil production in waters off the coast of Indonesian-occupied East Timor is almost sure to ignite further pro-independence demonstrations.
Western governments have shown anxiety about political developments in this region and six weeks ago suggested that foreigners leave holiday resorts such as Bali as riots shook Jakarta, the Indonesian capital, during the overthrow of Gen Suharto. This month action on the economic front in East Timor could heighten anxieties.
BHP, the Australian mining and oil company, is to start pumping some 30,000 barrels of oil a day from an offshore field between the eastern tip of Timor and the Australian coast.
After payments to BHP, the profits will be divided between the Australian and Indonesian governments under a bilateral deal signed in 1991 that has angered the Timorese, who will receive nothing. The oil will be loaded from the undersea wells into tankers at sea and sent away without ever touching Timorese territory.
"It will be very difficult for Australians here from now on," said one leader of the pro-independence youth group that staged massive demonstrations during the visit to East Timor last weekend of the British, Dutch and Austrian envoys, the "troika", on behalf of the EU.
These demonstrations were generally tolerated by the Indonesian military, who maintain a garrison of some 19,000, but nevertheless three Timorese did lose their lives at their hands last week in isolated incidents.
The so-called Timor Gap Treaty between Canberra and Jakarta caused the Portuguese government, still regarded internationally as responsible for East Timor, to take the two governments to the International Court of Justice, but in 1995 the court declined to give a clear judgment because the Indonesians refused to accept its competence.
The prospect of the Australians and Indonesians making free with Timorese oil, which at today's price would bring in $390,000 a day, will be particularly bitter for the 800,000 East Timorese who have seen the pro-democracy forces overthrow Gen Suharto's dictatorship in Indonesia and are now beginning to suffer from the collapse of Indonesia's economic and financial structures.
The coming to power of the mercurial and unpredictable President B.J. Habibie, the hesitation of the Indonesian army and rumours that Jakarta is planning a phased withdrawal from East Timor have given new heart to Timorese who seek to do away with the Indonesian presence, a presence that, according to Amnesty International, has caused 200,000 deaths.
Today there is speculation in East Timor, in Jakarta and in Europe that the Indonesian President could be preparing for a face-saving withdrawal from a territory which has brought Indonesia nothing but international embarrassment.