THE STATE could end up effectively nationalising three more financial institutions this week following a series of official announcements tomorrow evening which the Government hopes will draw a line under the banking crisis.
The Government is finalising details with the Financial Regulator and the National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA) on the co-ordinated announcements that will lead to the State taking far greater ownership of the banking sector.
Taxpayers are likely to take a stake of about 40 per cent in Bank of Ireland and a significant majority shareholding in Allied Irish Banks (AIB) of more than 70 per cent – which would effectively nationalise the bank – as the Republic’s two largest lenders are forced to boost capital levels.
Such is the scale of capital required at the EBS and Irish Nationwide building societies that the State would take control of both lenders.
AIB is fighting a rearguard action in last-ditch discussions with the Government, the regulator and the NTMA, seeking time to raise capital on its own through private means and avoid greater State ownership.
The bill for further capital at AIB, Bank of Ireland, nationalised Anglo Irish Bank, and the EBS and Irish Nationwide could run to well in excess of €16 billion.
Part of this may still be raised privately and some of the State’s €3.5 billion indirect stakes in AIB and Bank of Ireland could be converted to direct shares to bolster capital.
The State has a 16 per cent stake in Bank of Ireland, a 25 per cent indirect stake in AIB and full ownership of Anglo, after pumping €11 billion into the three banks last year.
The recapitalisation plan would give the Government a much greater say in the running of Bank of Ireland and would keep Anglo afloat. It will also dilute shareholders’ investments in both AIB and Bank of Ireland.
Green Party minister Eamon Ryan said the recapitalisation of the banks would be “strong” to end uncertainty on the international markets.
The capital required by the lenders will be determined by the losses on the loans moving to the National Asset Management Agency (Nama), the Financial Regulator’s assessment of losses on non-Nama loans and the new thresholds set by the regulator on the minimum capital the banks must hold by the end of this year.
The three issues will be addressed tomorrow in statements from Nama, the regulator and the Minister for Finance, Brian Lenihan.
The first loans will start to transfer to Nama tomorrow, with Irish Nationwide and EBS moving loans linked to the top 10 developers, followed by Bank of Ireland later in the week.
Nama had planned to unveil the discount on their loans today but decided over the weekend to delay this until markets close tomorrow evening to coincide with statements from the regulator and Mr Lenihan.
The delay will force Bank of Ireland to postpone the publication of its latest results until Wednesday.
Nama will also unveil in its statement the discount applying to the bank’s first tranche of loans, some €2.2 billion, to be transferred. The announcement will be followed by the statement from the regulator on the capital thresholds for the banks.
The Minister will then tell the Dáil how much capital the five lenders will require and the stakes to be taken by the State in each lender.
The Government’s “once-and- for-all” solution for the banks will undermine AIB’s “self-help” plans to boost capital by selling assets and raising cash from investors.
A spokeswoman said that the bank’s discussions with the regulator, the Department of Finance and the NTMA, which is leading the recapitalisation, were ongoing.
Mr Ryan said that he didn’t think the State taking a large majority stake in AIB was unexpected, given that the banks were always going to need more capital. Bank of Ireland is facing a discount of about 35 per cent on the first loans it is selling to Nama, while AIB faces a discount of more than 40 per cent and Irish Nationwide as high as 60 per cent.
Taoiseach Brian Cowen met Mr Lenihan, head of financial regulation Matthew Elderfield, Central Bank governor Patrick Honohan and NTMA chief executive John Corrigan for almost three hours on Saturday to discuss the recapitalisation plan.
