11PM: INDIANA/ KENTUCKYThere are three House races in Indiana that will tell us what kind of night it will be for Democrats, the 2nd, 8th and 9th Districts. If they lose just one, they can hold the House. Lose two and their majority is probably gone. Lose all three, and Republicans will gain upward of 60 seats.
In Kentucky, Republicans are spending money on semi-long- shot challenger Andy Barr in the 6th District race against Democratic incumbent Ben Chandler. If Chandler loses, Republicans could well make a historic number of pickups. Meanwhile, in the Senate race, if Democratic state attorney general Jack Conway can defeat Republican Rand Paul, it would be a major upset.
11.30PM:
OHIO/WEST VIRGINIA
Ohio governor Ted Strickland is in deep peril in his race against former congressman John Kasich. The White House would love to see Strickland win because controlling the governor’s mansion in a state likely to be very competitive in 2012 could give Obama a leg up.
In West Virginia, Democratic governor Joe Manchin appears to have stabilised his bid for the open Senate seat. But Obama and his party are very unpopular in the mountain state and that could drag wealthy republican businessman John Raese across the finish line.
MIDNIGHT:
FLORIDA
The governor’s race of the night is between Democratic state chief financial officer Alex Sink and former healthcare executive Rick Scott, a Republican.
Both parties have dumped lots of money into the state, and Democrats see this outcome as crucial to their night.
1AM:
COLORADO/SOUTH DAKOTA
No race has seen more spending by outside groups, $25m, than that between Colorado’s Democratic senator Michael Bennet and Republican prosecutor Ken Buck. Buck has tried to make it a vote on the president, but has made enough gaffes to give Bennet a win.
South Dakota has only one congressional district, but it is playing host to one of the best races nationwide between Democratic congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and state representative Kristi Noem. Herseth Sandlin has run a solid campaign to distance herself from Obama in this Republican- leaning state, and the race will serve as a test case for whether moderate Democrats can escape the drag of the national party.
2AM:
NEVADA
In the Senate race between Democratic Senate leader Harry Reid and Republican Sharron Angle, both sides see symbolic importance: a Democratic win would salvage what could be a tough night while a Republican one would mark the second time in four cycles the party had beaten the Democratic Senate leader.
3AM:
WASHINGTON STATE/OREGON
The race between Democratic senator Patty Murray and former state senator Dino Rossi in Washington has been tightening, but Murray remains well liked by the electorate. In Oregon, former basketball player Chris Dudley, a Republican. is in a nip-and-tuck race with former Democratic governor John Kitzhaber. A Dudley win would give the GOP a much-needed foothold in the Pacific Northwest. – (Washington Post)