Strong support in North for early IRA move

The IRA should immediately begin to put its weapons beyond use and the restoration of its offer to do so is not enough, according…

The IRA should immediately begin to put its weapons beyond use and the restoration of its offer to do so is not enough, according to an Irish Times/Prime Time opinion poll conducted in the North.

Some 85 per cent of voters - including a majority in all sections of the community including Sinn FΘin voters - believe the IRA should now start decommissioning, the poll shows. Just 9 per cent believe it should not and six per cent have no opinion.

Reinforcing this result, only 35 per cent believe the IRA's proposal of a method to put its arms completely and verifiably beyond use is sufficient to maintain the Belfast Agreement and its institutions. Some 58 per cent believe it is not; 7 per cent expressed no opinion.

Even among Sinn FΘin supporters a narrow majority supports immediate IRA action on weapons. Some 46 per cent of them say decommissioning should begin now, 44 per cent that it should not and 10 per cent have no opinion.

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Backing for an immediate start is overwhelming among supporters of unionist parties (95 per cent), loyalist parties (97 per cent), the SDLP (82 per cent) and others (87 per cent). Some 95 per cent of Protestants and 74 per cent of Catholics want the process to begin.

The survey was conducted last Saturday and Monday on behalf of The Irish Times/Prime Time by MRBI Ltd among a representative sample of 1,000 people in Northern Ireland.

While a small majority of Sinn FΘin voters wants decommissioning now, 82 per cent of them believe the IRA's proposal last month of a method to put arms beyond use is enough to maintain the political institutions. Just 10 per cent believe it is not enough with 9 per cent having no opinion.

A majority of SDLP voters also says it is enough with 62 per cent believing it is, 30 per cent that it is not and 8 per cent with no opinion.

However unionists and loyalists massively reject the IRA offer as insufficient. Some 83 per cent of unionists and 78 per cent of loyalist voters say it is not enough, while just 12 per cent of unionists and 22 per cent of loyalists say it is sufficient.

There is also majority support in the North for excluding parties with paramilitary connections from the executive if weapons are not put beyond use. Some 57 per cent say they should be excluded, 31 per cent that they should not be and 12 per cent with no opinion.

Unsurprisingly, support for exclusion of such parties is highest among unionists with 80 per cent in favour.

Sinn FΘin voters strongly oppose exclusion with 76 per cent against, 14 per cent in favour and 10 per cent with no opinion. A majority of SDLP supporters also oppose exclusion with 45 per cent against, 38 per cent in favour and 17 per cent with no opinion.

Voters endorse the scepticism with which the UUP greeted last month's announcement that the IRA had agreed a mechanism to put weapons beyond use. Some 54 per cent say the UUP was right to be sceptical, 29 per cent that it was not; 17 per cent had no opinion.

But while some 85 per cent of unionists and 76 per cent of loyalists endorse the UUP scepticism, 57 per cent of SDLP and 85 per cent of Sinn FΘin voters do not.

An overwhelming majority also feels that catholics should join the new police service of Northern Ireland, although a majority of Sinn FΘin supporters is against. Overall 75 per cent of the North's voters believe Catholics should join, 16 per cent that they should not and 9 per cent have no opinion.

The poll suggests a substantial drop in Sinn FΘin support in the North. However support for that party and the DUP is traditionally understated in opinion polls.

The state of the parties is Ulster Unionist Party 25 per cent, down 1.7 points on the UK 2001 General Election; SDLP 23 per cent, up 2.1 points; DUP 17 per cent, down 5.5 points; Sinn FΘin 12 per cent, down 9.7 points; Alliance 6 per cent, up 2.4 points ; Others 17 per cent, up 12.4 points.