Field narrows as Giuliani and Edwards leave the race, writes Denis Stauntonin Washington
Former New York mayor Ed Koch couldn't even wait for the results of Florida's Republican primary to come in before he started celebrating the humiliation of his old enemy Rudy Giuliani.
"The beast is dead," Koch crowed, adding that he hoped Floridians would drive a stake through Giuliani's heart.
Giuliani's withdrawal from the presidential race, along with that of John Edwards, has opened the way to two-person contests on both sides ahead of Super Tuesday. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama face a close struggle for delegates that could stretch well past next week, and although Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul remain in the Republican race, only John McCain and Mitt Romney have a realistic chance of winning their party's nomination.
After two consecutive victories in South Carolina and Florida, McCain is now the Republican front runner, enjoying an advantage in many of the delegate-rich states on the east and west coasts that vote next Tuesday. Huckabee's continued presence in the race helps McCain by siphoning off conservative votes that might otherwise go to Romney, particularly in southern states.
Losing Florida was a big disappointment to Romney, but the former Massachusetts governor can count on two advantages ahead of Super Tuesday - his own very deep pockets and the loathing many conservatives feel for McCain. Romney has already spent an estimated $40 million of his own money on the campaign and he is ready to spend much more, as he joked to supporters in Florida last night.
"All you guys are family," he told them. "Don't expect to be part of the inheritance. I'm not sure there's going to be much left after this."
Florida was the first state McCain has won where the primary was open only to Republicans, so he could not depend on the support of the independents who helped him in New Hampshire and South Carolina.
He owed his victory in Florida, however, to the support of self-styled moderates and liberals, as well as Hispanic voters who approved of his support for comprehensive immigration reform.
Among voters who described themselves as conservatives, McCain ran 10 points behind Romney, who said yesterday that he was banking on a conservative rejection of McCain next week.
"I think what will happen across the country is that conservatives will give a good thought to whether or not they want to hand the party's nomination over to Senator McCain. He has not been their champion over the last several years," Romney said.
"I think there will be a movement within the Republican party to coalesce around a conservative candidate. Mike Huckabee, of course, might stay in, and that might be one of the reasons he does so - is to try and split that conservative vote." Romney has the support of many "movement conservatives" and radio talk show hosts like Rush Limbaugh, who rail against McCain's support for immigration reform, campaign finance reform and tougher measures to protect the environment.
McCain's 95-year-old mother Roberta said last week that her son had no support from the Republican base, but that conservatives would "hold their noses" and vote for him anyway because he has the best chance of winning in November. Many have started holding their noses already and Giuliani's endorsement, which could be followed by a declaration of support from Fred Thompson, will help to rally more supporters to his flag.
Giuliani's descent from being the Republican front runner for much of last year to yesterday's exit after a string of primary losses will be analysed by students of politics for years to come. Most commentators have blamed his decision to ignore many of the early contests and to stake everything on a victory in Florida.
However, his fall may have owed as much to his deficiencies as a candidate who never appeared comfortable on the campaign trail and sometimes left supporters feeling worse than before they met him. In fact, the more voters got to know Giuliani, the less they liked him and the less plausible they found his policies.
Democrats didn't campaign in Florida but more than 1.5 million Floridians voted in the Democratic primary, giving Clinton a clear victory over Obama and Edwards. Clinton won in almost every demographic group except African-Americans, 70 per cent of whom backed Obama.
Obama won only 22 per cent of white voters and Latinos backed Clinton by a margin of two to one, although most voters who made up their minds in the last week chose Obama. Edwards failed to make an impact in Florida, but his supporters could make a big difference on Super Tuesday as they choose between Clinton and Obama. The latter hopes that most of those who supported Edwards are anti-Clinton voters, but the Clinton campaign believes that many Edwards supporters, who are mostly white and heavily unionised, will move towards Clinton.