The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, should take considerable encouragement from the findings of today's Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll if it is his genuine intention to legislate for abortion in Ireland during the lifetime of his Government.
Notwithstanding the support for the plight of the 13-year-old rape victim in the recent controversy, it is somewhat surprising that an overwhelming majority of 77 per cent of voters believe that abortion should be permitted in Ireland in limited circumstances.
More than one-third of voters, 35 per cent, say that abortion should be permitted when the mother's life is at risk; a further 14 per cent say it should be permitted when the mother's health is at risk; and 28 per cent feel that abortion should be provided to those who need it.
What is even more surprising is that only a small minority would appear to support the view of the Pro-Life Campaign. Some 18 per cent of voters hold that abortion should not be permitted in any circumstances.
It will also be of interest to the Taoiseach to note that within Fianna Fail - the most conservative party on the issue - 21 per cent of supporters are antiabortion. But 76 per cent are in favour of abortion in the circumstances listed in the three questions above.
Mr Ahern would do well, however, to beware of the contradictions in the poll, since the Green Paper process on which he is now embarking is intended to decide the course of constitutional and/or legislative action required to make abortion available in the State.
The biggest group of voters, 49 per cent, believe the Oireachtas should legislate for abortion, but only if the legislation has been approved first by the electorate. Put bluntly, almost a majority of voters wants to be consulted in another referendum. Among them are 51 per cent of Fianna Fail supporters, 48 per cent of Fine Gael, 56 per cent of Labour, 50 per cent of Progressive Democrats and 50 per cent of Others.
Less than one-quarter of voters, 23 per cent, want the Oireachtas to legislate in line with the decisions made in the courts. In the cases of X and C, abortion is lawful where there is a real and substantial risk to the life and health of the mother, including the risk of suicide. It is worth bearing in mind that the Government's move to draw a distinction between the life and the health of the mother, by removing the risk of suicide, was rejected by voters in the referendum on the substantive abortion question in 1992.
The option of legislating in line with the court judgments in the X and C cases is favoured by only 19 per cent of Fianna Fail supporters, compared to 25 per cent of Fine Gael and 33 per cent of Labour and PD voters.
Only 16 per cent of voters feel that the provision put into the Constitution in the 1983 referendum should be removed "and we should go back to the legal ban which was in force here since the 1860s". This would, effectively, mean dropping the abortion clause from the Constitution altogether and, possibly, legislating for abortion.
Between the 23 per cent who want the Oireachtas to legislate in line with the X and C cases and the 49 per cent who want any legislation to be put to the people, the poll would indicate that there may be a majority who would vote for limited abortion in Ireland.
The findings, if somewhat contradictory, would further suggest that Mr Ahern has got it right by offering to refer the provisions of any abortion Bill to the people for approval.
The composition of the Cabinet sub-committee, established to oversee the preparation of the Green Paper, may also be a true reflection of the complicated views of voters on the abortion issue. It is chaired by Brian Cowen, who would be regarded as a conservative pragmatist of the middle ground. Mary O'Rourke and Liz O'Donnell, the two women members, would be viewed as liberal on the question. John O'Donoghue is a supporter of the Pro-Life Campaign's position and in the past has advocated a new referendum to put back the clock. The Attorney General, Mr David Byrne, is not known to hold trenchant views on abortion.
It seems clear now that it would be inadvisable for the Taoiseach to use the mechanism of Article 27 of the Constitution to refer abortion legislation to the people in a referendum petition. That route could be viewed as an artificial referendum on the most sensitive social issue on the political agenda, since a majority of not less than one-third of voters on the register would be required to defeat it.