FINE GAEL has taken a massive lead over Fianna Fáil, according to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll, which shows the main Opposition party at its highest level of support for a quarter of a century.
The poll also shows that satisfaction with the Government has slumped to a record low of 10 per cent, with 86 per cent of voters now expressing dissatisfaction with the Coalition.
The surge in Fine Gael support to 38 per cent has coincided with the unveiling of the former RTÉ economics editor George Lee as the party candidate in the Dublin South byelection.
The boost for Fine Gael and the corresponding decline of Fianna Fáil to its lowest ever poll rating since The Irish Times began polling in 1982 comes after last month’s emergency budget and just three weeks before the European and local elections and the two byelections on June 5th.
When voters were asked who they would vote for if there was a general election tomorrow, the adjusted figures for party support, compared with the last Irish Times poll in February were: Fianna Fáil 21 per cent (down 1 point); Fine Gael 38 per cent (up 6 points); Labour 20 per cent (down 4 points); Sinn Féin 9 per cent (no change); Green Party 3 per cent (down 1 point); and Independents/others, 9 per cent (no change).
The poll was conducted over the past three days among a representative sample of 2,000 voters in face-to-face interviews at 200 sampling points in all 43 constituencies.
The margin of error is 2 per cent.
The core vote for the parties (before undecided voters are excluded) compared with the last Irish Times poll was: Fianna Fáil 20 per cent (no change); Fine Gael 29 per cent (up 5 points); Labour 15 per cent (down 2 points); Sinn Féin 8 per cent (no change); Green Party 2 per cent (down 1 point); Independents/ others, 6 per cent (no change); and undecided voters 20 per cent (down 2 points).
The Fine Gael vote is up significantly all across the country and the party is now at 28 per cent in Dublin, more than twice the Fianna Fáil total of 13 per cent.
It is also well ahead of Fianna Fáil in Munster and Connacht-Ulster and ahead by a narrower margin in the rest of Leinster.
One note of caution for Fine Gael came in the response of voters to a question about who they intended to vote for in local elections, which showed a segment of the party vote slipping to Independents. The adjusted figures for party support were: Fianna Fáil 20 per cent, Fine Gael 33 per cent, Labour 20 per cent, Sinn Féin 10 per cent, Green Party 3 per cent and Independent/other 14 per cent.
The further slide in the satisfaction rating of the Government and the Taoiseach is ominous for the future prospects of the Coalition.
A massive 86 per cent of the voters are now dissatisfied with the performance of the Government and that figure rises to 89 per cent in Dublin. The better off AB voters are the most unhappy of all.
Among Fianna Fáil supporters 63 per cent are dissatisfied and just 32 per cent satisfied with the Coalition’s performance.
Among Green Party supporters the figures are appalling, with 93 per cent expressing dissatisfaction with the way the Government is running the country.
The satisfaction rating of the Taoiseach has dropped again since the last poll and now stands at just 18 per cent. Fianna Fáil supporters are evenly divided on his performance, but Green Party voters are decidedly unhappy with it.
The rating of Green Party leader John Gormley has continued to slide and he is down to 25 per cent.
While he still has the backing of his own party supporters, a majority of those backing all other parties, including Fianna Fáil, are now dissatisfied with his performance.
The drop in support for the Greens indicates that the party will have great difficulty making an impact in the local elections.
The rating of Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny has gone up 3 points to 33 per cent since the last poll, but he now trails his party’s satisfaction rating.
Labour Party leader Eamon Gilmore is easily the most popular political figure with a satisfaction rating of 51 per cent (an increase of 7 points) and he is clearly benefiting from his strong Dáil performance.
The rating of Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams at 34 per cent is up 2 points. There was no increase in support for his party.
