A survey of farmers' intentions by Teagasc has found that 7 per cent intend to retire over the next three years, despite an expected increase in income of about 3 per cent.
The survey also finds that farmers intend to invest almost £300 million next year, reflecting new confidence in the industry. This shows an increase of more than 50 per cent on their intentions at this time last year.
A total of 23 per cent are planning to invest in their businesses, which is an increase of 5 per cent on last year.
Asked about their farming intentions over the next three years, 45 per cent say they will continue to farm full-time, 35 per cent say they will seek a part-time job and 7 per cent say they will retire under the EU early retirement scheme.
Teagasc has also published its income predictions for the coming year, following two years when income fell by 17 per cent.
The Teagasc economists predict that margins in dairying will remain the same as 1999 in the coming year but predict a 7 per cent increase in sheep profits.
However, overall cattle margins, which Teagasc predicts will fall by 20 per cent this year, should be better next year with a 17 per cent increase in margins.
"A further recovery is expected in 2001 as the phased implementation of the Agenda 2000 agreement begins to impact," according to the predictions.
The survey, which involved 1,028 farmers, finds that while 60 per cent of those going to invest were dairy farmers, the biggest increase in investment would be on beef farms.
The Teagasc economists predict there will be a drop in the number of ewes next year with a 10 per cent decrease in the number of lambs offered for slaughter. The survey also predicts an improvement in the fortunes of pig farmers, whose income was expected to fall by 40 per cent this year.
Teagasc predicts an 80 per cent lift in margins.
The survey finds that tillage farmers plan to increase cereal acreage by 3 per cent with a 69 per cent increase in winter wheat acreage, which would bring winter cereal acreage back to pre-1998 levels.