BrazilAfter decades of stagnation, Brazil has begun to assume the regional leadership role it always saw for itself, Tom Hennigan reports from São Paulo
Charles de Gaulle is once reported to have dismissed Brazil's ambitions by saying the country had a great future - and always would.
Now Brazil's political and economic leaders are working overtime to prove de Gaulle wrong, replacing decades of isolationism with frenetic diplomatic activism designed to turn the South American giant into the region's leader and a global player.
But in recent days Brazil's ambitions have been set a serious test as Argentina, its closest ally, threatens to take a step back from their alliance, which until now has formed the platform of Brazil's new engagement with the world.
In part Argentina's behaviour is the result of being caught off guard at the speed with which Brazil has taken on the regional leadership role it had always imagined for itself, before decades of political and economic chaos eroded the foundations of what had been South America's richest, most developed and outward-looking country.
As Argentina has slipped into institutional decadence, Brazil has recently achieved the political and economic stability that eluded it for most of the 20th century to the point where it is now the best-placed South American country to pursue an international leadership role.
In recent years Brazil has abandoned its previous policy of non-interference in its neighbours' affairs to lead the current UN peacekeeping force in Haiti. It has become the leading voice of developing countries at the World Trade Organisation (WTO), forming the Group of 20 countries to push demands that the EU, US and Japan open up their agricultural sectors to outsiders. Regionally, it was the prime mover in the founding last year of the South American Community of Nations.
Much of this diplomatic revolution is devoted towards Brazil's ultimate goal - a permanent seat at the UN Security Council.
But now its closest ally is increasingly setting itself against these ambitions. Argentina has openly stated its opposition to Brazil taking a permanent seat on the Security Council. It also refused to back the recent Brazilian candidate for president of the WTO.
This week Argentine president Nestor Kirchner was said by officials to be exasperated at Brazilian ambitions, reportedly saying: "If there is a vacancy at the WTO, Brazil wants it. If there is a space at the UN, Brazil wants it . . . they even wanted a Brazilian pope!"
The last line is a jibe at Brazil's decision to send the largest delegation to Pope John Paul II's funeral, interpreted in the region as none too subtle campaigning by President Lula for Brazil's leading papal candidate, Cardinal Cláudio Hummes of São Paulo.
President Lula did not get his Brazilian pope or his man elected to head the WTO. But these setbacks will be easier to deal with than Argentina's threat this week to "harden" its diplomatic stance towards its neighbour.
This threatens to escalate existing conflicts within Mercosur, the world's third biggest trade bloc which has the two countries at its heart and which Brazil has always seen as a means of amplifying its power beyond the region.
With an economy four times the size of its southern partner, trade within Mercosur is heavily skewered in Brazil's favour. Argentine companies increasingly find it difficult to compete against their Brazilian counterparts, who have gone on a shopping spree, snapping up Argentine competitors following the economic crash south of the border in 2001.
Industry bodies in Argentina speak of an "invasion" of cheap Brazilian goods and demand that the government put up barriers to protect local manufacturers.
Unable to compete within Mercosur, Argentina has proposed to Brazil a system of national "commercial safeguards" within the trading bloc until what it calls economic asymmetries are ironed out.
To the anger of Buenos Aires, Brasília has yet to respond to what amounts to protectionism within what is supposed to be a trade bloc aiming to become an EU-style common market.
The danger for Brazil is that it will be denied the global role it desires if it cannot manage its role of regional leader. But it cannot afford to play Germany to the region either. With the largest concentrations of poverty on the continent and a massive foreign debt to service it cannot make too many concessions to neighbours without upsetting domestic constituencies on both the left and right.
President Lula of Brazil sought to defuse the tensions by adopting a conciliatory tone: "I understand the anguish of an Argentine government in relation to the economic potential of Brazil, which is much greater [ than Argentina's]. And this we are going to resolve by talking."
But it takes two to talk and this attempt at harmony will be put to the test next week when Brazil holds the first summit of all South American and Arab countries, a new front in its campaign for global recognition.
As of this week Argentine officials said confirmation of the president's attendance was still pending.