The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, are meeting in Athens this morning to determine whether there is any advantage in publishing their blueprint for restoring the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly, or whether the document should be shelved.
There was a deepening sense of pessimism in London that politics in the North would remain deadlocked for the months ahead although the Taoiseach last night appeared to hold out some hope of an eleventh- hour breakthrough.
There was British and Irish consensus that the clarification provided by the IRA on Monday night of its confidential Sunday night statement still did not clearly state that the IRA was ending all activity.
Pro-Belfast Agreement parties sources said that the governments told them that based on the clarification, they were still not in a position to urge them to endorse what the IRA was offering. "There is a sense that the air is going out of the balloon," said one senior source last night. If the current negotiations collapse, a London source suggested that the blueprint would be put be on hold until the IRA clearly indicated its war was effectively over.
The Government, however, believed there was still merit in making one last effort to rescue the process. Mr Ahern was in contact with Mr Blair on the margins of the Athens EU summit late last night, and is again holding talks with the Prime Minister this morning.
British sources suggested that efforts to restore devolution might have to be parked through the summer to allow a political review in the autumn. Such an announcement, based on this morning's Ahern-Blair talks, could come today or tomorrow, they indicated.
British and Irish sources agreed that the IRA was only "inches away" from providing the wording that establishes it is effectively ending all paramilitary actions. The view in London was that the IRA "could not or would not go that extra distance to assure the governments and Ulster Unionists that they were going out of business".
Dublin took a more hopeful stance. Before flying to Athens last night, a spokeswoman for the Taoiseach said contact was continuing with the major parties, and the Government would persist in its efforts. There was also continuing speculation in Belfast last night that the IRA could be preparing for a major act of decommissioning.
The two governments say that even if the logjam persists, the Assembly elections scheduled for May 29th should proceed. Were such an election to take place in a political vacuum, Mr David Trimble's Ulster Unionist Party could suffer at the hands of the DUP and other anti-agreement unionists. In such a scenario Mr Blair, who has kept faith with Mr Trimble, may come under UUP pressure to postpone the poll until there is a new political deal.
Mark Hennessy, Political Correspondent, writes: The Taoiseach briefed the Cabinet about the prospects for a deal yesterday morning, though the mood became progressively more downbeat as the day progressed. But the Government disagreed with private British suggestions that Mr Ahern and Mr Blair are to issue a statement in Athens acknowledging that agreement is not possible now.
Speaking to The Irish Times, a British source said the leaders would end the talks, announce that the elections are going ahead and let matters lie until the autumn, unless the IRA came up with overnight changes.
The statement given to the governments by the IRA last week has not changed, despite the intensive negotiations. "The clarifications that have been offered have come in parallel," one Irish source said.
Indicating his wish for further moves by the IRA, the Taoiseach, speaking during Dail statements, pointedly described the IRA's statement as "a draft". Acknowledging "disappointment", Mr Ahern said: "I believe that we still have an opportunity to bring our work to finality. I cannot say at this time when we will be able to do so." Earlier, he said that he and the British Prime Minister had "completed what we believe is our position" during a telephone conversation that ended at midnight on Monday. "We are down to very few issues, but very important issues. Without going into the detail, it is absolutely clear that we all understand what everybody is saying," he declared.
SDLP leader Mr Mark Durkan said voters in Northern Ireland had "moved beyond disillusionment, to cynicism. We want to see the agreement implemented in full," he said.
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