The prospect of a deal on the EU's constitutional treaty during the Irish presidency is increasing, writes Denis Staunton in Brussels
After a month of consultations, the Government remains cautious about the prospect of an agreement on the EU's constitutional treaty during the Irish presidency. Officials acknowledge, however, that the Taoiseach is more optimistic now than he was following the collapse of December's summit in Brussels.
At the end of that summit, the Irish presidency was given a mandate "to consult partners, to make an assessment of the prospects for progress and to report to the European Council" in March. By next week, the Government will have reached the end of its consultation phase, during which the Taoiseach has spoken to all his counterparts in the present and future member-states and in the three accession countries, Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey.
Immediately after the failure of the Brussels summit, a number of EU leaders suggested that, instead of rushing back to the negotiating table, Europe's governments should settle into "a period of reflection" on the treaty. The former president of the Convention on the Future of Europe, Mr Valery Giscard d'Estaing, favoured doing nothing at all until 2005.
The Taoiseach's most important achievement during the past month is to have persuaded his European colleagues that it will be easier to do a deal earlier rather than later. Government sources say that all the leaders now agree that an early agreement is desirable, preferably before the European Parliament elections in June.
For the past month, the Taoiseach, the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, and the Department of Foreign Affairs' top EU official, Mr Bobby McDonagh, have received detailed briefings from their counterparts on each country's position on the outstanding issues.
Italy's Prime Minister, Mr Silvio Berlusconi, claimed in Brussels to have reached agreement on all but a handful of questions. The Taoiseach has identified up to 20 unresolved issues, however, including the future composition of the Commission, the extension of qualified majority voting and God's place in the treaty's preamble.
The most difficult issue is the distribution of votes in the Council of Ministers, the most powerful body in the EU, where national governments meet. Most countries, led by Germany and France, want to introduce a "double majority" system that would allow measures to be passed with the support of a majority of member-states representing 60 per cent of the EU's population. Spain and Poland want to retain the system of weighted votes agreed at Nice, which gives them a disproportionately powerful voice in the Council.
Between now and the EU summit on 25 March, the Taoiseach will seek to find agreement on as many of the relatively minor outstanding issues as possible. There is no question, however, of resuming formal negotiations unless the outline of a deal on the voting issue begins to emerge.
Mr Ahern has made clear that retaining the voting system agreed at Nice is not an option and he has identified strong support among EU leaders for Germany's call for its size and economic weight to be reflected in the Council.
Government sources say that, contrary to the prevailing view in Brussels, France has been "very helpful" in recent weeks and is not expected to stand in the way of an agreement. The Taoiseach is alert to political complications in Spain and Poland, including the departure from office next month of the Spanish Prime Minister, Mr José Maria Aznar. Officials believe, however, that Madrid and Warsaw are less inflexible than some public statements have suggested and that both Spain and Poland are willing to consider any compromise proposals that the presidency might present.
Any compromise proposal is likely to suggest the introduction of a double majority system but could involve a modification of the population threshold and a delay in its implementation. Officials are considering a "rendezvous clause" that would allow EU leaders to review the proposal before the new system is introduced but the change of voting system is expected to be almost inevitable.
The leaders of France, Germany and Britain are expected to discuss the constitutional treaty when they meet in Berlin on February 18th and Britain's Mr Tony Blair could prove to be a crucial intermediary in the negotiations. If the Taoiseach believes that a deal is achievable, he will give a "full report" to the March summit and propose that the Inter-Governmental Council should be reconvened the following month. The negotiations are likely to begin at the level of foreign ministers but, if progress is made, the Taoiseach is understood to favour holding a treaty-making summit in April or May.
Officials are adamant that the summit will not coincide with a meeting of EU leaders in Dublin on May 1st to mark the accession of ten new member-states, not least because they believe that the capital is not in a position to host a full-scale summit.
If all goes well, the constitutional treaty would be agreed before the European elections and Ireland's EU presidency would be deemed a remarkable triumph.
If the Taoiseach judges next month, however, that the necessary political will to make a deal is lacking, he will effectively disengage from the process for the rest of the Irish presidency. If Ireland fails to make a deal, the Netherlands has made clear that it relishes the prospect of assuming control of the negotiations during its subsequent presidency.